Agrium (AGU.TO)

A really solid company in the fertilizer space. Has had a great run the beginning of the year, so he wouldn’t be putting fresh money to work yet. They benefit from lower natural gas prices. He would prefer it a little lower down.

Decent chart, however it is probably a little overbought. There is a reasonable possibility of a pullback. However, the trend is the most important thing to look at, and in this case it is up.

In the absence of the rest of the Canadian resource sector doing well, people have put their money into this and Potash (POT-T). Management has done a lot of investor friendly moves.

Agrium (AGU-T) or Potash (POT-T)? This is doing very well and had a record high today. Both names are quite strong, but this one ranks a little higher due to its growth metrics and its diversified mix. Dividend of 2.63%.

(A Top Pick Feb 21/14. Up 36.13%.) A nicely structured company, but a little pricey at the present time. Did a big acquisition in Australia. Have a good marketing side. The agricultural sector is going to grow.

The dominant period of seasonal strength for this company is from July through to September. However, it can do all right from the beginning of December to now. Between now and the next period of seasonal strength it tends to be volatile, and is something you would probably want to stay away from for the next few months. If you own, take your profits and wait until July.

The move was based on the increase in dividend. There was a little bit of firming of prices in nitrogen. They are integrated downstream more than others. He sold recently because it had a nice move and earnings will be down this year. He trades it a lot.

Has been moving quite smartly recently. The bump up is that they are buying shares and raised their objective in terms of distributions to shareholders. The stock is moving on positive news. He is concerned about the market for fertilizer, which depends on natural gas. Nat Gas prices have gone down unexpectedly so this means lower production costs. So as a result he has been quite bullish on the stock. You might want to let it come back and test recent lows. Maybe they would split and that would be positive as well.

She likes the agricultural space long-term and this is the most attractive stock within that space right now. They have the retail operation, which is not as sensitive to crop prices. Crop prices have definitely been declining, which has been a marginal negative for fertilizer stocks. Nitrogen is their primary nutrient, and the big input costs for that is natural gas. All of their plants are in North America, so they are benefiting from low natural gas prices.

Fertilizer stocks have a period of seasonal strength normally from around the middle of August right through until the 1^st week in January. This has been doing okay but has recently been struggling a little. There was good news today went it announced an increase in production. The earnings picture starts to turn positive during the next quarter or so. You may want to Hold until they report their fourth-quarter results, because it is going to be very good on a year-over-year basis. Historically fertilizer companies tend to go into a quiet time from the middle of January, right through until April of each year. The time to take profits is right around the 2^nd week of January.

(A Top Pick Nov 15/13. 19.58%.) He sees 2017 EBITDA’s being 50% higher than 2013. They get this from cost-cutting, wholesale expansion and new products. This is a name that goes much higher, and you can Buy into this weakness, probably in the next few days.

You are looking at a 5% total return. It does not interest him. It is getting tired. He is considering selling it. If you are a long term holder, then continue to hold it. The world has to get fed. He is considering moving to Monsanto (MON-N).

Making new highs. There are a number of things going on. A US firm took a sizable stake in the company, which propelled the stock to over $100. They are going to work with management to try to unlock value. Also, 2014 was really a watershed year for this company. Have had a lot of production off-line, so earnings were really troughing in 2014. 2015-2016 is going to see some massive earnings growth, massive cash flow growth as production comes back online. Thinks it is going higher from here.

This is getting back to its technical resistance. It is at a level that it has hit before. It's probably testing its old high. If you own it, you definitely want to continue holding it right now. If it breaks through the old high of $114-$115, it is probably a really good story. If it starts to break down again, you could use a stop loss and take your profit.

Thinks Value Act is taking a more constructive approach. The management team of AGU-T should be more receptive of what they want to do than the previous active investor group. It added strength to the stock price. If they are successful in getting management to listen to some of their value adding ideas it could be positive. The stock price being up does not suggest it could not go higher. It is never a bad thing to take profits and then see what they can accomplish.