Stock Opinions by Brandon Osten - Stockchase Experts
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Brandon Osten @

On Stockchase since : Jan 2013

President & CEO at Venator Capital Management

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Stock Opinions by Brandon Osten - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

September 9, 2013

Markets. Non-Financial and Non-Resource N.A. equities are today’s topic.  We had a very large run in the US since 2009.  A lot has been a lack of alternatives.  The Fed squeezed you out of bonds, so money flowed back to equities.  After 2008's experience, people may move back to bonds for only 3%.  He thinks the money flows into equities are gone and now companies are on their own.  He always does bottom up.  He is worried that the economy may not be as strong as people think based on fast earnings in big blue chips.

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Markets. Non-Financial and Non-Resource N.A. equities are today’s topic.  We had a very large run in the US since 2009.  A lot has been a lack of alternatives.  The Fed squeezed you out of bonds, so money flowed back to equities.  After 2008's experience, people may move back to bonds for only 3%.  He thinks the money flows into equities are gone and now companies are on their own.  He always does bottom up.  He is worried that the economy may not be as strong as people think based on fast earnings in big blue chips.

Unknown
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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DON'T BUY

They’ve done a great job, but it may be hard to create profitability.  It is a challenge that they may not exist in 10 years.  You could enter if it got to liquidation value.

specialty stores
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They’ve done a great job, but it may be hard to create profitability.  It is a challenge that they may not exist in 10 years.  You could enter if it got to liquidation value.

specialty stores
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$10.430
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
A T & T US(T-N) 

September 9, 2013

Good dividend at 5.3%.  Cap-X level is high but there is good cash flow.  A very defensive sector.  It is going to grow over the long term. 

Telecommunications
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Good dividend at 5.3%.  Cap-X level is high but there is good cash flow.  A very defensive sector.  It is going to grow over the long term. 

Telecommunications
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$33.630
Owned Owned
Unknown

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N/A
General Market Comment 

September 9, 2013

Canadian Dollar.  In the short term the Canadian Dollar will not do as well against the US with oil at $110, but he is bearish on oil long term.  It won’t go back to par, however.

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Canadian Dollar.  In the short term the Canadian Dollar will not do as well against the US with oil at $110, but he is bearish on oil long term.  It won’t go back to par, however.

Unknown
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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HOLD
Microsoft(MSFT-Q) 

September 9, 2013

Fairly non-cyclical.  You will always get good pockets of growth. But this one is stagnant.  Nokia was not a good idea.  He is concerned with the 10s of thousands of employees they just picked up.  They are challenged and it is well known they are.  Sees a low level of growth. 3% dividend.  Be prepared to hold it for 3 years after the new CEO turns things around.

computer software/processing
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Fairly non-cyclical.  You will always get good pockets of growth. But this one is stagnant.  Nokia was not a good idea.  He is concerned with the 10s of thousands of employees they just picked up.  They are challenged and it is well known they are.  Sees a low level of growth. 3% dividend.  Be prepared to hold it for 3 years after the new CEO turns things around.

computer software/processing
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$31.655
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Dream Office REIT(D.UN-T) 

September 9, 2013

7%+ dividend means it is not dead money.  A very high quality REIT.  The entire sector has come under pressure.  People worry about how they can roll over mortgages over time.  Smart management team.  Being paid to wait.  He would wait because over the long term it will probably be up.

property mngmnt/investment
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7%+ dividend means it is not dead money.  A very high quality REIT.  The entire sector has come under pressure.  People worry about how they can roll over mortgages over time.  Smart management team.  Being paid to wait.  He would wait because over the long term it will probably be up.

property mngmnt/investment
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$29.100
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY

4% dividend is good, but not great.  A few acquisitions were put together.  But he does not like the cigarette business. Too many laws working against you and getting worse.  There is a trend toward people getting healthier.  It has a beta of 1 so it may not be that defensive.  Not a lot of growth potential.

tobacco
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4% dividend is good, but not great.  A few acquisitions were put together.  But he does not like the cigarette business. Too many laws working against you and getting worse.  There is a trend toward people getting healthier.  It has a beta of 1 so it may not be that defensive.  Not a lot of growth potential.

tobacco
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$84.510
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Jan 24/13, Down 8.99%) He got out somewhere in the mid $40s.  Same store sales were not coming in where he wanted them to come in.  There is some question as to how the CEO can pull strings to get one company to help another.  Likes it over the long term but he stays on the sidelines for now.

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(Top Pick Jan 24/13, Down 8.99%) He got out somewhere in the mid $40s.  Same store sales were not coming in where he wanted them to come in.  There is some question as to how the CEO can pull strings to get one company to help another.  Likes it over the long term but he stays on the sidelines for now.

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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$31.970
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Superior Plus Corp(SPB-T) 

September 9, 2013

(Top Pick Jan 24/13, 5.28%) Pretty good dividend.  He recently bought more.  Recently had a setback that will delay some growth.  He would still own this.  Dividend is safe.  Could see dividend move up in 24 months.

wholesale distributors
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(Top Pick Jan 24/13, 5.28%) Pretty good dividend.  He recently bought more.  Recently had a setback that will delay some growth.  He would still own this.  Dividend is safe.  Could see dividend move up in 24 months.

wholesale distributors
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$11.120
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Jan 24/13, Up 1.75%) He is happy with the 30% he has received and questions above return calculation.  Thinks it will continue to move up as they prove out their asset.

oil/gas
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(Top Pick Jan 24/13, Up 1.75%) He is happy with the 30% he has received and questions above return calculation.  Thinks it will continue to move up as they prove out their asset.

oil/gas
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$6.980
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Bombardier Inc (B)(BBD.B-T) 

September 9, 2013

Historically he has not been a big fan because he has not seen a big creation of value.  And he is not that bullish on global infrastructure.

transportation equip & components
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Historically he has not been a big fan because he has not seen a big creation of value.  And he is not that bullish on global infrastructure.

transportation equip & components
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$5.010
Owned Owned
No

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WEAK BUY

He is positive on the automotive sector.  He thinks Eu has bottomed in automotive.  He doesn’t like that GM have bad relations with their pensioners.  Prefers others.  He owns F-N. Better from labour relations and growth prospects point of view.  Also, likes TRW, which is his favourite in this sector.

Automotive
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He is positive on the automotive sector.  He thinks Eu has bottomed in automotive.  He doesn’t like that GM have bad relations with their pensioners.  Prefers others.  He owns F-N. Better from labour relations and growth prospects point of view.  Also, likes TRW, which is his favourite in this sector.

Automotive
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$36.480
Owned Owned
No

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SHORT
Walmart Inc(WMT-N) 

September 9, 2013

Caller asked what to Short. He has a number of shorts.  Wal-Mart because of weak numbers and free cash flow below earnings due to depreciation. 

department stores
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Caller asked what to Short. He has a number of shorts.  Wal-Mart because of weak numbers and free cash flow below earnings due to depreciation. 

department stores
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$73.510
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Intel(INTC-Q) 

September 9, 2013

It is controversial but he would buy it today.  Thinks they will regain market share.  They ARE the PC business.  There is not a lot of market share to lose in that area.  At some point PC sales will stabilize.  They have a rich dividend.  Don’t count them out yet.  There are better places to be, but he would hold it.

electrical/electronic
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It is controversial but he would buy it today.  Thinks they will regain market share.  They ARE the PC business.  There is not a lot of market share to lose in that area.  At some point PC sales will stabilize.  They have a rich dividend.  Don’t count them out yet.  There are better places to be, but he would hold it.

electrical/electronic
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$22.910
Owned Owned
Unknown

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SPECULATIVE BUY
Chorus Aviation Inc(CHR-T) 

September 9, 2013

12.6% dividend.  An interesting company.  In dispute with AC.A-T, their only client.  They can’t get out of contract for 6 years.  If it is resolved in favour of CHR, it will go up, otherwise it will pull back.  Thinks they will kill the dividend in the later case.  There is a better way to play it.  They have a convertible bond with 9% coupon, due in about a year.  If the decision goes against them they could still make good on the bond.

Transportation & Environmental Services
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12.6% dividend.  An interesting company.  In dispute with AC.A-T, their only client.  They can’t get out of contract for 6 years.  If it is resolved in favour of CHR, it will go up, otherwise it will pull back.  Thinks they will kill the dividend in the later case.  There is a better way to play it.  They have a convertible bond with 9% coupon, due in about a year.  If the decision goes against them they could still make good on the bond.

Transportation & Environmental Services
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Brandon Osten

President , Venator Capital Mana...

Price Price
$2.400
Owned Owned
Unknown

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