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COMMENT
COMMENT
May 15, 2019
Market Outlook The market is trying to figure out its next trading level. With the change in interest rates and earnings, the market appears to be forming a double top. Now with US long term bond rates going down, the expectation is for a US Fed rate cut in September. The economy appears to be slowing down. Q1 earnings have been okay and the market is losing momentum. He is cautious. The trade war between China and the US and the amount of government debt are the greatest headwinds. Inflation could re-emerge when no one is expecting it.
Market Outlook The market is trying to figure out its next trading level. With the change in interest rates and earnings, the market appears to be forming a double top. Now with US long term bond rates going down, the expectation is for a US Fed rate cut in September. The economy appears to be slowing down. Q1 earnings have been okay and the market is losing momentum. He is cautious. The trade war between China and the US and the amount of government debt are the greatest headwinds. Inflation could re-emerge when no one is expecting it.
Lyle Stein
Sr. Portfolio & Managing Director, Vestcap Investment Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 15, 2019
IPOs? He does not participate in IPOs in general. The Canadian IPOs have not done particularly well.
IPOs? He does not participate in IPOs in general. The Canadian IPOs have not done particularly well.
Lyle Stein
Sr. Portfolio & Managing Director, Vestcap Investment Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 15, 2019
Near-term, choppiness will continue. He expected a standard 10% correction last September, but in fact a 4-year cycle reset was happening which was the sharp pullback through Dec. 24. Early-2019 was the time to buy stocks, expecting a strong rally. But for the past three weeks he's been warning clients of a 5-10% correction for one or two months, like October-November 2018. Then, there will be a strong recovery. We have more a dip to come to as low as 2,775 on the S&P. Gold: he's been liking it since last summer when it bottomed below $1,200, then he was cautious gold in February-March 2019. Even India-Pakistan tensions didn't budge gold. Now, the smart money is being gold; also gold's seasonality is the summer.
Near-term, choppiness will continue. He expected a standard 10% correction last September, but in fact a 4-year cycle reset was happening which was the sharp pullback through Dec. 24. Early-2019 was the time to buy stocks, expecting a strong rally. But for the past three weeks he's been warning clients of a 5-10% correction for one or two months, like October-November 2018. Then, there will be a strong recovery. We have more a dip to come to as low as 2,775 on the S&P. Gold: he's been liking it since last summer when it bottomed below $1,200, then he was cautious gold in February-March 2019. Even India-Pakistan tensions didn't budge gold. Now, the smart money is being gold; also gold's seasonality is the summer.
Javed Mirza
Technical analyst, Canaccord Genuity