Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

Banks on the whole are going sideways. It's OK. Pretty good dividend. Stuck in a range, $100 on the low side and $120 on the high end. Good for the dividend, but not for growth. Yield is 5.3%.

Weak link among the Canadian banks.

One of his principal bank holdings. Loan provision increases have been occurring and he thinks management is just being cautious. It is well capitalized and trades at a discount to its peers. He would recommend buying here.

Everything looks okay, but it looks kind of mushy. All banks look like this, except National Bank which is Quebec based. The banks are cheap, but they look like they want to ooze lower before there is any rebound. He would hold it if you own it, but he doesn't expect good performance in the next couple months.

They stubbed their toe on Q4 earnings and arrived late to buying assets in the US. In Canada, they have been very aggressive on mortgage lending. He does not own it presently. He is not a fan of the overall leverage to the Canadian economy.

CM vs. MFC They were late to get US exposure, which hurt them. Also, there's negativity towards CM's mortgage book. TD and RY remain the top Canadian banks, not CM. TD & RY are investing in tech, the future, which is smart. MFC: The lifecos have done well diversifying into asset management and into Asia. But with low interest rates, pricing insurance gets tougher and limits growth. You own lifecos for Asia and wealth management. Not CM, but buy TD and Royal.

They stood out from their peers as the one to increase their expenses. This is difficult because of the headwinds in the sector. It has the weakest earnings profile going forward. He would prefer another bank. See his Top Picks for today.

If the market is going into an inflationary period, this dividend and 8.9 times earnings, you could but it here. Their underlying credit quality remains stable. The resumption of Canadian real estate looks good. Earnings are not growing as fast as other Canadian banks. Yield 5.5% (Analysts’ price target is $113.00)

The banks across the board have’s done well this week. Banks do well between August to September and usually outperform the market. From a technical perspective, we inched into resistance and we’re seeing testing. He wouldn’t be a buyer here unless it come down to the August low.

$111.65 is his structural level. It will stay where it is until there is some news. He would add here as his model price is $135.44 or an 18% upside. He would nibble here.

(A Top Pick Dec 10/18, Up 13%) Pays the best dividend among Canadian banks. Still likes it. Trades in line with its peers in terms of valuation. ROE is fairly good. They report next week. Credit has held in well in this space, and all the banks have contained operating costs. The sector is up 14%.

Financials look pretty good. They keep moving on into December. You have support way back in May and we should see it hold at $110. It should carry on into January and February of next year. It should go back up to $120 and then pause there.

Will they continue to outperform their peers? Every cycle sees the laggard become the leader and then vice versa. The Canadian banks are all about the same in long term returns. CM is the smaller of the Big 5 banks. RY has been consistently the largest bank, however. CM-T does have the highest current dividend yield.