Toronto Dominion (TD-T)

It has set aside $2.6 billion for the money laundering issues and this would be for the worse case scenario. This means that the uncertainty over the payout has gone which has caused the stock to rally. Also the U.S. regulatory board may constrict expansion in the U.S. but this could be good for TD since it would need to focus more in Canada.

Yes, if you have a very long time horizon of 5 years. Usually trades at a premium, now at less than 9x earnings because of AML issues. Those issues will get resolved. Premium ~over 11x will return, but not for a while. (Median for big banks is ~10x.) She read that at these valuations, it's like getting the US operations for free. Both Canadian and US operations posting solid numbers.

Took on extra provisions to pay fine. We don't know if growth will be capped by regulators.

Will hold onto it. They're in the penalty box for a while, but it's a chance for them to focus on finding the best people and technology, which will improve their multiple. Also, not buying any businesses will force them to improve their U.S. business, and integrate Cowen. TD is fine to hold now. Their core business is doing well.

He recently sold BMO to buy this. Last week, TD offered a lot of clarity by warning of potential losses from the their US money-laundering issue.

Q3 was broadly in line with expectations today, setting aside the 1-time charge to settle the anti-money-laundering mess. Has indicated this overhang should be gone by end of year. Bank has some explaining to do, needs further management changes. Shored up capital ratios by selling SCHW, a good move.

They'll get through this. Shares are adequately discounted. Fixing compliance. Canadian unit is doing well. Integrating Cowan acquisition well. Big insurance settlements re wildfires. Short-term headwinds should dissipate and it will continue trajectory of high single-digit or low double-digit returns. He's keeping the faith.

In the news a lot, creating lots of noise and uncertainty. On straight valuation, trading at attractive levels of 9/10. Fundamentals are 8/10. She'd need to see a lot of turnaround. Regulatory compliance will take some time. Be cautious. Only 6-7% upside, risk/reward just not there.

Her preference is RY.

He'd still buy today. Trading at a discount to peers. Taking lots of steps to correct things.

He doesn't know what penalty they will pay over money-laundering charges in the US, but TD has a ton of free cash flow that they could use to buy more shares and operations are very good.

Regarding the money laundering scandal TD has booked $450 million in fines but most think there is more to come. The bigger picture is the growth in Canada by targeting immigrants with new products. It is at a good entry point.

The lapse in compliance is fixable. Lots of capital. The overhang on the stock is how big is the cheque for the fine going to be? Once that cheque's written, it should be fine. Will force them to be a better bank. Being prevented from acquiring means they can put $$ to use on strengthening what they have.

Added it a month or so ago. US money-laundering overhang, depressing the valuation to 8-9x from the gold standard in Canada of Royal Bank's 12-13x. Hoping for clarity in the fall of the monetary fine, which will clear the decks and provide room for multiple expansion.

Huge concern if they're told they can't purchase US assets for a time, but at least people will know where they stand. He's equally bullish on both names, for different reasons.

RY and CIBC are his favourite banks. Others never can topple RY. TD is facing legal troubles in the US. But all the Canadian banks were not doing well, but now bouncing, including TD. Their troubles aren't over.

Has probably recovered from the $75 range. Multiple interest rate cuts in Canada will be a nice sigh of relief, but doesn't solve the cockroach problem it currently has. No idea how big the fine will be or impacts. Clearly, management didn't have good control over assets, and that should be rectified.

How does it get its mojo back? Not sure. May be stopped from growing in the US. Valuation is, arguably, quite inexpensive. Not his favourite, wouldn't put $$ in. Prefers RY and NA.

She owns both. RY has far outperformed TD. RY remains her top Canadian bank. Likes the HSBC acquisition and its wealthy client base, integration has gone well. Though it's outperformed, still her preference.

We don't yet know what ultimate penalties in US will be for TD, its capital base can handle it. There may be a cap imposed on growth. Trading below 9x forward PE, lagged YOY. Stock price already reflecting the bad news. She'll continue to own. Substantial operations in Canada and outside US. Targeting immigration to Canada.

Broke down through support, mirroring support from 2019; the older the support, the less it matters. Could rally to around $80, and it would still be a sell. If it doesn't find some legs really soon, it's going to $60. He doesn't have faith.

He has only 2% exposure to banks.