Northland Power Inc

NPI-T

(A Top Pick Jun 21/19, Up 2%) Hasn't sold any. Loves it. He'd name it a top pick again, but it's too soon. They just reported earnings with great free cash flow which will lead to share buybacks and dividend increases. Everything is on track here.

It will do well with falling interest rates. It mostly holds long-term contracts in renewable energy, so there's no pricing risk (but Ontario's renewal rates will probably be at lower prices). Ranks in the top 3% of his valuation metrics. Has good price momentum. High ROE. They carry a lot of debt, like all utilities, but NPI has stable earnings. Trades at 10x EV to EBITDA, cheaper than most utilities. Yield of 4.7% based on a good 80% payout. They have some good projects on the go. Expect growth. (Analysts’ price target is $27.80)

You can keep holding it. All utilities have done quite well. If it is a big overall position you may want to trim it.

Tends to stick to the pure plays. This is one that has some natural gas within their portfolio. Mid-side on the dividend at 4.65% with the potential for some upside as they do continue to grow.

Wind in the North Sea. They started in Canada. They decided two years ago whether to put themselves up for sale and it did not go through. It has stable cash flows and there is potential for a rising dividend. Debt goes up when projects are build and then when completed, cash flow goes up and debt goes down. He sees good prospects for it going forward.

They have a big catalyst coming up at the end of the year with the big Deutsche Bucht offshore wind project in the North Sea which will bump up their free cash flow by a third. With this they can raise their dividend (nearly 5% now) or buy back shares. You should get low-teens returns in the next few years. He expects the payout ratio to fall below 60% in 2020. (Analysts’ price target is $27.17)

In construction mode in Mexico, Europe, and overseas. You want to own it when it's in growth mode. Only problem is not raising the dividend much, as they're growing. He owns NEE instead.

This is a utility with a good dividend. This is a good quality company.

He really likes them. It has a really nice dividend. They own some natural gas so it is like co-generation. If you want 100% renewables, then this would not fit the bill. But if you want companies going in the right direction, then this is one of them. They are developing new technologies. At the end of the day they will own assets in wind generation in the north sea. They are well positioned in the sector.

Valuation is pretty reasonable. It trades 10.5 times EBITA. Payout ratio of 80%. He will continue to hold it. Yield 5%

It has been good over the last year. He is not in this sector. His only caveat is the debt on the balance sheet. There is nothing else wrong with it.

The CEO did a stock disposition recently. One of his largest holdings. A leader in off-shore wind energy. Their issue has always been attracting capital. They need to partner or be owned by a pension fund, which they almost did a few years ago. It's odd the CEO founder sold his shares recently as opposed to a few years ago when the stock price was nearly the same. That sale has created an overhang, though. It's been in the $25 range in the past 3-4 years while NPI has de-risked and built up several projects. The future looks good, so what's next for them? Maybe raise the dividend; they haven't done that, because they've been hoarding capital to build projects. He's adding to it as it pays over a 5% yield, and he predicts the stock will rise.