Altagas Ltd

ALA-T

(A Top Pick Oct 05/18, Down 3%) This was a theme of trying to catch a falling knife. He was surprised how it got wiped out and he got stopped out earlier. They spun out the Canadian utilities business, which was unexpected. This left the US acquisition in Washington. The market didn't like the debt level, when interest rates were going up.

It has had a stormy couple of years. It is now coming back. They are in the energy business where there have been no money flows for 4 years. There is a turnaround in place. It will be a slow and steady stock.

He was shocked when they announced they were combining with a utility in Washington DC. He thought the culture was too different. The stock seems to have made some good moves in sales and is now watching this stock.

Rate reset vs Rate reset with a floor. The stock is down because of the credit risk. Should look at the bond, and the prefs will perform. Altagas is trading weakly, even with a floor due to this.

ALA blew itself up, and is fixing its balance sheet. They have worked out some, but not all its problems. He predicts they will sell Altagas Canada as part of their re-structuring.

They have made a lot of positive progress on the balance sheet after the US acquisition. At this point they have done what it is required to stabilize the balance sheet. She does not own it.

His colleague upgraded ALA recently. It broke its long downtrend earlier this year and at that time he said don't buy until ALA breaks its downtrend. Now, it continues a new uptrend, and it pays a strong dividend. Cap your risk at recent lows; as long as it doesn't fall below around $19, ALA looks good. It's pushing higher in a new uptrend.

He would be careful with this one as the balance sheet appears stretched. Dividend growth is likely to be muted going forward. Money may come out of this one from investors.

Selling US assets? The recent sale of assets has been to address balance sheet issues. The assets were non-core, which allows them to focus on the remaining. He does not own it, but feels management has been doing the right things. They are moving more towards being a regulated entity. Their credit rating has moved close to becoming junk status, which is why they are trying to improve the balance sheet.

He owned it in the past. He wishes they would have come back in. The delay in the Washington acquisition caused debt to become an issue making them over levered. He owns the bonds. He likes how they are getting the balance sheet back into good repair. He would be comfortable holding.

Great business in Canada, and then they levered up to buy a gas company. No one in the market today likes debt. Numbers have stalled. There are more stable opportunities elsewhere.

Likes it. He's holding onto dividend payers like this one, but in an underweight position. Has a $20 target, and is comfortable with the dividend. A utility like this one is a good place to sit for the dividend. Massive downturn offers a great entry point. Cautionary note is the Alberta economy.

He doesn't think we have seen the final outcome of their takeover yet, so would wait to see how that materializes. There may be some regulation hurdles to still overcome.

A recovery story he missed. He prefers the dividend and growth that comes from Enbridge even as their business is more stable now.

He bailed. They made this transformational acquisition in Washington and they over levered themselves. They had to spin out Alberta Gas Canada. He still owns the bonds as they are deleveraging. He wouldn't go back even as it is safer now.