Walt Disney Co. (DIS-N)

Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong, including the executive suite. Expectations of the cruise lines and theme parks rebounding post-pandemic are overshadowed by the streaming and broadcast businesses, a competitive space that changes rapidly. He's in wait and see mode.

The theme parks are doing great, especially in China, but nobody is talking about them. He expects them to be more resilient than the rest of travel and leisure. Does Netflix have a theme park? Disney can afford and has the cash to pay Comcast to buy the rest of Hulu, unlike some investors, and in fact it's one reason he owns Disney. He just added more shares recently. Doesn't believe they will sell ABC; they aren't as desperate as the bears say. Disney is about to play offence.

Disney had no choice, because with a deal Disney's revenues would have been hit hit by 2-3% or 6-10% in EBITDA. And they have to bid for NBA and it have made it harder for DIS to restore their dividend. That said, she doesn't know the terms of the deal.

He expects the Disney-Hulu deal to wrap by the end of this year. Who cares about the cost of this Charter deal? The industry is leaving linear TV and heading firmly into streaming. Disney's CEO is no dummy; he knows where the industry is going.

Compelling buy at these levels. Unique properties. ESPN remains a free cashflow generator. Parks are booming, hurt a bit by writers' strike. NAV is double current share price. Battling political issues in Florida. Gaining market share in streaming, and CEO is focused on making it profitable.

He sold. Couldn't see the catalysts to drive it forward in the short term. Best content. Disney+ is very expensive. A lot of pent-up Covid demand has been satisfied. Be cautious. See his Top Picks for ideas, instead of waiting around on a name like DIS.

Now at a new post-Covid low. Frustrating. There's no new catalyst, but a malaise. ESPN is the real albatross, though there have been talks with other parties like Amazon to partner.

Owns share in company.
Share price under-performing 
Political struggle with Florida governor a concern.
New CEO (Bob Iger) positive news.
Expecting better days ahead for the company.
Cutting costs and new plan ahead.
TV model being transitioned. 

He's ready to return to this. It's one of the great long-term growth stocks, and it's been punished enough. The only thing investors are looking at is their streaming business. A family would keep Disney+, if they had to cut. They have the content and no one cross-sells better than them. Have done very well with Marvel assets. They also have ESPN. The valuation has fallen a lot. Everyone hates Disney now, but buy it now and you will be pleased down the road.

Many dumped shares after its May quarter, plunging below DF's $96.50 stop in very heavy volumes. Since then, DIS has been stuck in a sideways patterns with an $85 floor. Even after last week's positive conference call, DIS remains below its 200-day moving average. Last week after earnings, DIS jumped 5% at triple normal volumes, but DF believes the stock is still building its base above $85, so it's too early to buy this one. However, DF does see some signs of institutional buying. DF expects this to remain sideways until its next report in November, and could break out. Cramer disagrees--buy DIS now, not in November. It's one of his favourite stocks.

Great assets with legacy content.
Very strong collection of brands (Marvel, Pixar etc.)
Current share price weakness creating opportunity.
Weakness in TV segment not a concern.
High costs of content creation a concern.
Theme park business resilient. 

New CEO is positive, it will just take time. Streaming has cost more. Betting with ESPN-Penn is a positive. General malaise overall for DIS. Best-in-class assets and content that can be leveraged and monetized better than anyone else. $80 is the trough where he'd be adding.

They're over their skiis: politics, Florida is a mess. Technically, what is driving this? That said, if DIS hit $91, buy half a position. It's been ranging between $85 and $105. If this falls below this range, it will like fall further.

Sentiment is negative. Pressure to improve from activist investors. New CEO implemented cost-cutting to improve cashflow and profitability. Big overhang is streaming, still not profitable. Hugely undervalued, tons of hidden value. Don't throw in the towel.

He has owned for a long time and is looking to add more. It is a turn around story and is the best of breed for a franchise business. It is looking for the next success story and is incredibly cheap.