Precision Drilling (PD-T)

Remember to buy a sector when it looks terrible, not when it's up 80-90%  ;)

Still likes it but not as much, as drilling is weaker than thought. Selloff in oil, drop in rig count. More efficient drilling ultimately means less work. Continues to de-lever. Everyone's excited about natural gas. Massive exposure to nat gas in Canada, which has better dynamics than US. About a 3.7% weight for him.

Is a lower-risk version of Ensign given its healthier balance sheet as reflected in his higher valuation

The drilling business like the oil price has come under pressure. Short-term, exploration/drilling could be slower, while pipelines will continue to thrive. There needs to be a real, systemic increase in the oil price, otherwise PD will be rangebound.

Still constructive, especially after Q2 reporting. US activity and nat gas remain weak. US investors are buying because Canada's oil & gas industry is very, very strong. LNG Canada is a huge catalyst. Sees $185 target, or 93% upside from here.

Consolidating, as are a lot of stocks in the sector. Attempting to break out, wrestling with the older highs of $120. Longer term, likes oil. Hard to say if this one will break out. If you're patient, you'll probably be rewarded. But also a chance could tumble back into the trading tunnel. It's a flip of the coin.

Modest multiple. Trades today at 22-23% free cashflow yield at modest activity levels; forward free cashflow yield of 26%. Offers strong optionality for better activity levels in 2025, predicated on higher nat gas price. No interest in services right now, so that's one of the best value propositions. No dividend.

For his bullish natural gas outlook. 23% free cashflow yield, slightly more bullish next year at 28%. Pledged to return 35% of that to shareholders. He targets 116% upside from here. No dividend.

Large contract drilling company in Canada & USA. Very risky name that is volatile. Directly tied to outcome of energy business. Day rates (salary expenses) can swing wildly. Very inexpensive stock, but hard to determine outcome of business (profits etc.)

He prefers drilling to pumping because the former has far fewer competitors and pricing has been firm amid weak nat gas prices. The Canadian market is much stronger than the U.S. It boasts 31% free cash flow yield in 2025, and they will return 30-40% of that. Will hit their debt targets. he owns nearly 10% of the company. The outlook for LNG is positive. He sees 137% upside.

Ridiculously cheap. Investors don't realize how much debt they have paid down. Much upside ahead.  26% free cash flow yield then 30% this and next year. They will return 30-40% of that cash flow to investors, but will tell them it should be 50%. It trades at a discount to US peers. has 100% upside.

At an extremely attractive level. Focused on maximizing free cashflow and de-leveraging. Anticipates it meeting an inflection point of moving from using money to de-lever to using it to reward shareholders, by Q2 of next year.

A non-depleting business, low-maintenance assets. Backdrop of LNG Canada, replenishing inventory, good macro headwinds. His numbers show 34% free cashflow yield next year, 36% the year after. His target is $177. No dividend.

Energy is very cyclical. This will lose money when the economy is on the downturn. That happened a few years ago. Unless you are optimistic about oil prices, don't build a position.

In drilling services like SLB and Haliburton - a cyclical business. Buy only when out of favour.