Aurora Cannabis, Canopy and More Earnings this Week (Feb 11-15)

Don't buy cannabis stocks here. Their earnings just aren't there. You can buy good value companies at discounts to book value so why go for this one. Move on. It is an opportunity to upgrade your portfolio.

A US company that's consolidating in the medical market (home lifts, ventilators, oxygen, etc.). He continues to like it. It was a past pick and since they made an acquisition. The stock has increased, though not as much as he expected. He predicts the valuation will be pretty attractive. This could be a takeover target…

They make life easier for large diagnostic test companies. It automates the testing process. They did a final financing. They've been working on this technology for 5 years.

This is another company in the cannabis space. This is not a cannabis producer, it is a company that adds value in that space. They are mapping cannabinoids, looking for different formulations to treat different diseases.It is highly speculative, but he thinks there is opportunity for this type of company. He likes the management. In…

For years NEPT was in partnerships where they were extracting Omega-3 oils from krill oil and selling that to consumers. Now they're taking that extraction technology and applying it to the cannabis oil market. He's in a wait-and-see spots. The fundamentals don't back the move up in the stock. He has a small short on…

He has looked at the US or niche producers in Canada. This would be the best of the Canadian producers, though. He feels they will be the dominant leader without question.

Spun-out from Canadian Tire, and 92% of their income comes from Canadian Tire. They reported strong results last week; they collected an impressive 98.5% of rent in July. They surprisingly raised their Q2 dividend by 2%, indicating confident cash flows. Won't be much growth, because the leases are 9 years on average, but will be…

Making changes to be able to invest more in foreign stocks. Wait to see how they do.

(A Top Pick April 25/16. Up 16.15%.) A small investment management firm. Historically they have done very well in investing in both public and private oil companies, and buying and selling assets. They delivered a special $2 dividend to shareholders in June. He is a little less bullish on this now. Trading at a slight…

Likes their managers and strategy. They dominate across the Maritimes and have expanded into Ontario, BC, and have a small presence in Calgary. They outperform some apartment REITs, because they lack exposure in urban centres (urban, multi-family REITs have lagged). Killam should stability and growth in the coming year. Problem is that foreign students and…

(A Top Pick June 1/17, Up 12%) A great manager. Out of Alberta with very good western properties. He sold during its recent highs, but still likes it.

A hold. A value name in apartments in Canada and the U.S. He's impressed with how stable their Toronto portfolio is, holding occupancy quite well. MGR is in the US sunbelt and Chicago. MRG is higher-leveraged. He's seeking REITs that are defensive. He doesn't see as much growth here vs. the REITs he already owns.…

Better value than BPY.UN. This issued equity at $25 just a year ago. The CEO says the dividend is safe and will stay that way. They do a fine job to concentrate on key markets in Canada. It's stable short-term. Has a growing portfolio outside retail that will add a lot of value. Pays a…

He is a big fan of this company and likes their management team. Their own risk management tolerance is low. A lot of buildings in Toronto and Vancouver, but they also hold office space in tight markets. They find older buildings and turn into nice new spaces. The balance sheet is healthy.

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80% of its assets are retail. He shies away from retail, but Loblaw owns half of those assets, which is stable and boasts high rent collection. The company is in good hands and the dividend is safe. Managers are doing a good job to diversify into apartments and industrial spaces to diversify away from retail.

A large company in commercial real estate. Barely pays a dividend, but offers an 11% free cash flow yield that's and growing 91% YOY. It trades at 8x trailing cash flow and boasts a big 25% return on capital in Q4. Earnings to grow 11% in 2020. (Analysts’ price target is $107.83)

They are in the retail space. Anything that is in the retail space during COVD-19 is in the penalty box and for good reason. The pandemic has shut down traffic to every shopping mall. Their shopping centers are a victim of online sales. The growth outlook has been diminished. He thinks the market has overly…

He owns Sun Life and Great West Life instead. Insurers have suffered. Growthier companies are getting the attention, especially in a low interest rate environment. Good value over time, but that's not in favour right now. Has recovered from the March lows. Nothing against it.

It's a holding company that holds various investments. Be long-term here and patient. Some of those investments need time to recover, like secondary malls and office towers, mostly in Alberta. Those are headwinds. It'll pay off, but not until the long term. Things will recover. Caveat: This is thinly traded with low volume.

He likes this retail REIT. It is trading at a 25-30% discount to NAV but Wal-Mart is the anchor tenant to 70% of their properties. 9% yield. The anchor tenant drives some of the traffic to the other stores. Post-vaccine, these will come back. (Analysts’ price target is $25.13)

SLF vs. GWO Insurance companies have done a lot to reduce their risk. GWO is cheaper than SLF, with a higher growth rate, but it hasn't been as steady eddy as SLF. Whole space is pretty cheap. Dividends are safe. Boring area. You can own both, but GWO is the better buy.

A company that has done well over 2020. It is not a cyclical business since all businesses listed on the TSX has to pay fees. TMX database access fees and software fees are still getting paid. They raised their dividends this year. The new CEO is looking for more international listings and to leverage more.…

Although the analyst says ETF, BAM.A is an asset management firm. The companies are all kind of the same. Anyone who is in the ETFs should look out. He suggests avoiding the name. The balance sheets are bank-like so they need to earn huge earnings to match their balance sheet and they don’t. They are…

He prefers buying a insurance company directly like Manulife and Intact. Though well-run, FFH has a mixed bag of many assets. This mix adds a level of risk vs. pure insurers.

Populated by public and private investments in India. One stock he would tuck away for 10 years. India is the largest democracy, and corporate tax cuts have been encouraging. Fundamentals are looking great for India.

(A Top Pick Sep 17/19, Down 52%) A diversified REIT. This is one they ended up selling. Their mall portfolio has suffered. He was afraid the dividend would come under pressure. Getting access to capital is tough for them.

Most recent quarter was a great one. ROE was 28%. With all the stuff that is happening in the marketplace right now, there are a lot of concerns about Alberta specifically, and you also have a lot of concerns about financials. Thinks they put in a great quarter. To be a buyer of the stock,…

(A Top Pick Aug 11/20, Up 32.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We have been impressed with the pre-season rally and GOOS has achieved our first price objective. We are recommending to take 50% off the table here and trail the stop-loss up to $34, just above the intial Top Pick entry level.

A solid company with a good balance sheet and nice yield. There is a modest opportunity for upside. Since 2012 they have traded between 2.5 and 3.5 times book, with a downward basis trend. The share price is unchanged in ten years and has added no value to investors in that time. He calls these…

He doesn’t know the seasonality on this, but the technicals show that it has been in an upward trend for quite a period of time. During the last little while, it has been in a trading range between around $19 and $22. It is not unusual for a lot of stocks in the consumer staples…

(A Top Pick Oct 24/19, Down 15%) Sold out a week ago. Industry under immense pressure. Tim's and Burger King are struggling. Earnings growth remains uncertain. He'd look at it once there's a vaccine.

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Stands out as one of the best run of the Canadian quick serves. Great growth strategy. Execute well. Hit by pandemic, but the dividend will come back. Short-term blip in a great long-term story. Hold it if you own it. Has potential to continue to surprise.

It has not picked up to the same extent as HD-N. We are dealing with a general consumer related store whereas HD-N has benefited from the home renovation space because at home what else are you going to do with your day when shut in but renovate. As stores start to re-open again and assuming…

They have a multi-brand retail platform with well recognized brands. The retail offering is less compelling compared to their competition. It could be a value trap with 10x forward earnings. It could take them longer to strengthen their online offering.

Cinema closings? COVID-19 has put this investment thesis on hold. It does not kill it, but there are other opportunities out there. Their theater technology is a wonder, but it would not interest him now. You need to know when movie theaters will be allowed to open up again.

Doesn't know this company. Loves the space. Names with a good name, like "green" move well. They produce organic foods, and people are looking to eat healthier. Fancy name. Fancy products.

They do canola mainly. At these prices the stock is so cheap. He sold because he was not seeing enough capital being deployed in Canola streams.

Allan Tong’s Discover Picks During the depths of the lockdown, the price of lumber in the CME futures has tripled since April 1 to nearly touch US$828 (per thousand board feet) just recently. There are no signs yet to show a slowdown in demand. Meanwhile, Canfor is still only halfway to its all-time highs above…

Seasonally, forest product stocks have a history of reaching a peak around the 3rd week in April. This year is no different. Probably an opportunity to take some money off table.

Cobalt is attractive but this is not a cheap producer, because they're in Canada and not Russia or Congo.

He owns it around these levels. They have mines in Bolivia and Spain and looking to acquire in Argentina. The property they just bought has costs of $500-$650 per ounce of gold. He is concerned about the revolving door on management. He does not know where gold prices are going to go. He will continue…

They have a large Brazilian gold deposit. The problem here are indigenous people challenges there and a government contract that pays out a crazy amount to the managers. This payout is not aligned to the shareholders' interests. Then again, it's a cheap stock vs. gold in the ground.

Fiji is an interesting place. They have raised $85 Million last year when it was tough. If they get this thing going it will build up confidence. They are putting a relatively small scale gold mine into production while doing exploration. They should eventually get bought out.

There is no dividend. Sales are up but earnings are less negative rather than positive. Earnings growth forecast for this year is zero.

This is on his watch list. He is not familiar with their fundamentals. Today's earnings release will help define their future.

It is almost at the '08/'09 level. It has collapsed below 2.5 times book. If you are patient, we are getting to an area of lows. The twelve month earnings forecast is minus 14 cents. He figures $22 for a bottom in the share price.

(A Top Pick Jun 14/19, Down 23%) They were stopped out of it and they allocated more to health and tech. Now lumber prices have shot up. He now expects a housing boom out of the pandemic.

Lumber company with a good dividend and low payout ratio of 70%. The dividend looks safe. He does not expect a lot of capital returns. There are some cyclical risks with housing markets. There are 45% owned by Brookfield. A good income holding. Yield 6%

If there is a huge inflationary monetary stimulus policy, then gold becomes attractive. He is wary of a repeat of what happened in 2013 to now where the gold price collapsed and dividends were cut. However, it is the most liquid company in the space and he holds it for his clients.

135% payout ratio, not sustainable. But if business returns, as he thinks it will, payout ratio will go down to 62%. Real problem is balance sheet. Need to focus on asset sales. Has upside, but pretty risky. Better yield stories elsewhere.

Bullish on gold. This one will give you exposure to the miners. He's always looked for the best operators, like KL with its clean balance sheet. Watch the USD. If it continues to rally, you'll get a much better opportunity to buy.

A smart group of guys. They are putting a fair bit of work into proving their concept is right. They seem to be backing up their thesis. It is looking like it is working so far.

This is a zero, although not priced there yet. That is where it is going. It has been a lousy company for a long time. Madagascar will prove to be their undoing. They defaulted on their debt in February. Their debt is currently worth 54 cents on the dollar so the stock is worth zero.

There were a couple of subtle things went on with the trust conversion which discouraged a lot of investors. An illiquid stock. Most of their exposure is in B.C. and Alberta where housing is still very strong. Thinks we're at the peak of a cycle so don't have it as a long term hold.

Doesn't own any base metal stocks. Chosen to stay away from very cyclical areas of the market. Recessionary environment, so tends to be oversupply for some time. An uneven recovery. You need not only China to recover, but also Europe, etc.

They hold Quebec assets. They just reported a quarter that blew away expectations. The iron ore price has bounced back, and CIA produces high-grade iron ore, so they fetch a premium price. Also, transporatation costs have declined in the last month. If China comes back into the fray, CIA will enjoy huge growth. (Analysts’ price…

A risky stock that’s driven him nuts. He bought it around $10.96. It’s finally breaking out. Copper stocks could do well although his exit price is around $11 which could move up depending on how it performs. (Analysts’ price target is $15.47)

(A Top Pick Oct 12/18, Up 2%) He still likes gold, Newmont (which acquired G-T) and Goldcorp.

Their South American deposits are huge and demand billions of dollars in capital to build. They are copper-centric, and copper prices are low now. It's a great speculation over five years. Not for the short term.

Doesn't think there will be a take-over soon. The CEO used to be the CEO of Richmond Mines. They now have an operator. On their watch list and he has confidence in management.

(A Top Pick Mar 15/19, Up 17%) It was bought back in October and so he does not hold this any longer.

Usually silver will lead gold by a little bit. Everything in silver right now is looking really, really good. Chart shows a downward pattern, but has reached the upper side of the channel and should be breaking out anytime now, and do quite well through to mid-March and maybe April, depending on the whole complex.…

Their customer base is the food industry and it does not grow that much. This company can only grow when they make acquisitions. There is nothing wrong with it but there is not enough upside to buy. It is a good company.

It has been a relief overall. It is similar to Gold Bullion. He would hold off on it right now. Gold stocks have gotten ahead of the bullion.

He rarely talks about Gold. He thinks it is a strong sector bet. It is been out of favor for so long that mines have closed, productions have closed, mergers and acquisitions happened. Central Banks are now massive buyers of Gold. they want to get out of the US dollar. The Fed is not raising…

Collaborative communication space. Executing incredibly well. Revenue has doubled in last 2 years. Organic growth plus acquisitions in the cloud, so more recurring revenue. Good time to add it at these levels. Right space, right time. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $3.64)

Pandemic has helped all the e-commerce names. But valuation worries him, at 500x forward earnings. Sales growth will be strong. Paying a premium for this name.

They recently had a joint venture with Baker-Hughes (BHGE-N), where Baker Hughes is co-marketing one of their products. It would make sense for Baker Hughes to take over this company. Schlumberger (SLB-N) is the only company with a competing product. (Analysts’ price target is $9.50.)

For once, he's saying that they are undervalued. Free cash flow yield is over 4% after growing it at 30% annually for 10 years. It's cheap at these levels. Loves the managers. (Analysts’ price target is $1670.00)

The AGM is tomorrow. They provide e-commerce software to big companies like Sobey's, just like Shopify does for smaller ones. Also, they enable suppliers to bid on government contracts; MDF just won a big contract in this business in the UK. 80% of their sales are recurring, but it trades at only 1.5x recurring revenues…

He follows this, but does not own it. They just reported an earnings miss. He does not see their business model panning out on the financial statements. Now trading under $12, he expects more downward pressure.

(A Top Pick Sep 23/19, Up 37%) A great CEO who has driven shareholder value, like getting rid of their mobile business which was stagnating in terms of growth. They sold their subscriber base to Dish, and generated revenue by selling back-end services to Dish, which was smart.

Generally not a fan of the Chinese inter-listed companies. He has a Short position in this one. There are better places to be.

(A Top Pick Apr 25/19, Down 53%) They sold out when they were stopped out last July. It is tough in the energy space right now. Investors have to avoid trying to be a bottom feeder and trade with tight stop loss levels.

He is bullish on natural gas with less swamping of the market from the US. Global demand is improving for LNG. It is his small cap pick. They are aggregating free cash to pay all debt and then pay dividends.

It's fine but they have a lot of refining exposure where there is overcapacity. It's not terribly overbought like CNQ. There may be better areas to be invested. You probably want Canadian small-cap with some natural gas.

(A Top Pick April 23/13. Long Tag Oil (TAO-T) and Short Imperial Oil (IMO-T). Down 42.51%.) Did an equity issue last fall at about $4.40, which the Street didn’t like. This is a New Zealand oil/gas play and they have about 5 or 6 catalysts coming up in terms of major wells.

Just beat earnings and have increased production. Cheap valuation compared to peers. But it's getting more expensive heading into 2021. There's no growth here, but that goes with the entire oil patch. The real issue is will they survive. Their balance sheet is getting better, but still high for a blue-chip name. You'll be saved…

Hold ENB and PPL instead, which have more robust cashflows and can sustain the dividend. Cut dividend, and still looking for partner for their chemical plant. Overhangs on the stock. Wouldn't add at current levels in this environment. Yield is 3.7%.

The biggest land driller in Canada and one of the largest in North America. They still generated free cashflow even during challenging times. At $50 oil, they can generate free cashflow equivalent to their market cap if producers drill to maintain production. Downside is limited since they generated free cash this year still. (Analysts’ price…

The company has good businesses. Their problem was the balance sheet. They will be 3 times debt-to-EBITDA. They have more funds for M&A, which could help them make some interesting acquisitions. He likes the distribution and the management team. They just partnered with Brookfield, which gives a strong vote of confidence. Its valuation is reasonable.…

There is always headline risk for pipelines. If the Keystone XL pipeline is cancelled, the stock may take a hit. However, the company is looking at growing dividends by 5-6% annually.

(A Top Pick April 3/14. Down 12%.) A fully integrated agricultural company with a railroad to their elevators along with production of legumes and wheat. Thinks it should deliver quite nicely this summer because of what is going on in California. Feels drought is going to haunt us from a food inflation perspective.

This is a funny one. The book value is $4.80. They started a few more projects in China. It is not for him, but he can see why somebody would like it.

(A Top Pick Jul 30/19, Up 12%) Death, taxes and garbage are life's certainties. He's long owned this. WCN continues to do well, though there will be softness from commercial activity, though consider all the cardboard boxes from Amazon deliveries. Still a good company. Well-managed.

It has really been bankrupt for year, if not for continual government bailouts. Get out of this position. Think of quality US names right now.

A very well run company with a pristine track record. It pays a low yield, and he looks for higher ones. He needs a sustained income. If the company pays a low yield, you expect the company to somehow raise its share price. Tailwinds for TIH are rising infrastructure spends in Quebec and Ontario plus…

Telus Health going well. Small impact from Covid. High dividend with 6% growth. Great name. Not cheap. Part of the solution in the thirst for data. Best of the bunch.