Aurora Cannabis, Canopy and More Earnings this Week (Feb 11-15)

Opinion about ACB-T: Avoid the sector. High risk, speculative. Doesn't see catalysts to drive the sector higher, especially if Republicans succeed in the US election.

Opinion about PTQ-X: (A Top Pick May 29/20, Up 55%) Oxygen delivery. Recurring revenue model. Very strong outlook.

Opinion about SQD-X: They make life easier for large diagnostic test companies. It automates the testing process. They did a final financing. They've been working on this technology for 5 years.

Opinion about IN-T: This is another company in the cannabis space. This is not a cannabis producer, it is a company that adds value in that space. They are mapping cannabinoids, looking for different formulations to treat different diseases.It is highly speculative, but he thinks there is opportunity for this type of company. He likes…

Opinion about NEPT-T: Doesn't know this well. They're in the cannabis sector, more in the extraction market, an area that will continue to expand. He's watching their progress in earnings.

Opinion about WEED-T: Good for marijuana exposure. Speculative, but quality. 

Opinion about CRT.UN-T: Similar to grocery-anchored. Suite of tenants connected to Canadian Tire. Very well structured with nice little increases in rent over time along with inflation. Really likes it. Very stable. With tariffs, he suspects that more of us will shop Canadian brands to support our Canadian economy.

Opinion about UNC-T: Making changes to be able to invest more in foreign stocks. Wait to see how they do.

Opinion about CKI-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research The stock has really jumped over the last month and the most recent news we see is relating to CKI renewing its NCIB (share buyback plan). CKI plans to buyback 5% of outstanding shares over the next year. Results vary significantly period-to-period…

Opinion about KMP.UN-T: Very well managed. Company size is in the top 5. Originally focused on the Maritimes, which has seen a lot of population inflows. Expanding into other markets in Ontario such as Kitchener-Waterloo. Likes that they're experienced developers, always improving. Energy-efficient, new construction. Not facing high-rent pressures of others.

Opinion about MEQ-T: Apartment buildings mostly in Alberta, a few in BC. Founder is one of the most remarkable entrepreneurs John's ever met. Good assets and Alberta is thriving. Tends to be more volatile than BEI.UN, but has strong fundamentals. Perhaps some pressure from immigration reform as it's more exposed to student housing, but that…

Opinion about MRG.UN-T: Apartments on both sides of the border. Always trades at wide discount to NAV, a good starting point when you invest. Nice portfolio. Keep holding if you own, but better ideas out there. Nice distribution of 5.5%.

Opinion about REI.UN-T: Big fan. In general, no new retail properties have been developed. Increasing efficiency (reducing staff and selling apartment segment), focusing on core strengths (retail). Positive on ability to grow earnings for next few years.

Opinion about AP.UN-T: Office buildings. Big yield, and he thinks they'll be able to keep paying it. Most buildings are in Toronto, with vacancy at 20%. Long time before it can raise rents again.

Opinion about AI-T: (A Top Pick Mar 11/24, Up 14%) More conservative than TF, and he owns both. Core position. Nice dividend. Not trying to shoot the lights out, just want to collect the income and reinvest.

Opinion about CHP.UN-T: (A Top Pick Jul 12/24, Up 14%) Likes it, but should invest in better areas. Bought it for defence. It's boring, but steady. Great long-term for retirees seeking safe income, but won't rise in price much. But during the next pullback, which he expects in coming weeks.

Opinion about CIGI-T: (A Top Pick Nov 06/23, Up 63%) There's still upside. CIGI has benefited from rate cuts, since CIGI is in real estate. Peer CBRE announced strong results two weeks including double-digit revenue growth. There seems to be pent-up demand in the market. They use economic downturns not only to buy companies, but…

Opinion about FCR-T: Grocery-anchored retail in major cities in Canada. Most in-demand asset class in real estate today. Irreplaceable portfolio of great retail properties. World-class assets. Will have great rent growth, as new builds are too costly. Potential down the road to build apartments or condos on top of current sites, further adding to value…

Opinion about MFC-T: Very strong franchise in Asia. Life insurance benefits from aging demographics, as well as people in developing and emerging markets purchasing life insurance for the first time. Undemanding PE. Nice dividend. 

Opinion about MRT.UN-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Trading at high discount to NAV. Significant cash retention compared to peers. Diversified cash flow streams. Bid competition to slow acquisition growth.

Opinion about SRU.UN-T: Main tenant is WMT, which is a blessing and a curse. WMT drives a lot of traffic and attracts a lot of tenants, and it has great credit. But WMT has locked in low rents for a long time, though rents can be raised for the other tenants. Not as much growth…

Opinion about SLF-T: MFC vs. SLF MFC is such a complex company, really hard to figure out. If he can't figure it out, he just stays away. If you compare the two right now, SLF is incrementally more profitable and more transparent. Nothing compelling about the price.

Opinion about X-T: A wonderful performer in recent years. Not just the TSX, but they have businesses around the world like trading platforms and economic data/analytics, based on subscriptions, so lots of recurring revenues. Their results may move a little due to trading volumes and new listings, but TMX is so diversified that enjoy recurring…

Opinion about BAM.A-T: You could buy this but it would be better to buy the parent company, Brookfield Corporation (BN) instead, for a long term hold and outlook. BN owns 75% of BAM and has a better valuation. It has had a 15% compounded return over 10 years and expects 17% in compounded earnings. Insiders…

Opinion about FFH-T: Very successful. P&C is a bit easier to understand than life insurance, which tends to be rate-sensitive and has investment risk.

Opinion about FIH.U-T: One of his highest-conviction investment ideas. Trades at a discount to NAV. A stock to buy for the next decade. India is the largest democracy on the planet, very young demographic, fast-growing economy. Lots of pro-growth and pro-business reforms happening. Portfolio of $3.5B worth of different investments, both public and private. Crown jewel…

Opinion about HR.UN-T: Hostile takeover. Diversified REIT that doesn't work very well anymore, as it tends to trade at the multiple of the least-liked sector it owns, and it has a lot of office. If you own, hold on, as today's press release indicated interest from multiple parties (and so a higher bid may come…

Opinion about RFC-X: Most recent quarter was a great one. ROE was 28%. With all the stuff that is happening in the marketplace right now, there are a lot of concerns about Alberta specifically, and you also have a lot of concerns about financials. Thinks they put in a great quarter. To be a buyer…

Opinion about GOOS-T: Good proxy for health of consumers in Canada. Luxury item that is discretionary. Hard to excited about this style of business. Not seeing major spending from average population. Better options for investors out there. 

Opinion about CSW.A-T: Ace Beverage acquisition got him interested. Some really nice growth coming, but not all segments are growing. So it's not going to give him the consistent 10-15% growth rate of a great company. Last quarter showed 9%.

Opinion about CSW.B-T: He doesn’t know the seasonality on this, but the technicals show that it has been in an upward trend for quite a period of time. During the last little while, it has been in a trading range between around $19 and $22. It is not unusual for a lot of stocks in…

Opinion about QSR-T: She's nervous about the consumer, particularly in Canada. Highly indebted consumer is being more cautious on discretionary spending. If it were just Tim's, she'd be OK with it because she likes the trade-down economics. Burger King is still closing stores, lots of competition and margin pressure.

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Opinion about AW-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research AW is relatively small, but we like it well enough. It has operated very well in differing economies, raised its dividend over time, and maintained its market share. However, we would view it far more as an income stock and not one…

Opinion about CTC-T: Traditional bricks and mortar business that will face competition from eCommerce. Undifferentiated shopping experience that is not enjoyable. Discretionary product offering makes it difficult to retain customers. Would not recommend investing at this time. Housing slowdown in Canada will also be hard on the business. 

Opinion about CTC.A-T: Over the long term, great Canadian business that's gotten really efficient about how they retail. Consumer recession might happen; not right now, but it is a concern. Incrementally, will be a better business over time. Tariffs will have an impact on some of its stuff, but which stuff and how much? If…

Opinion about DBO-T: A disappointment. Pandemic has been the nail in the coffin for movie theatres and DBO's motion systems. Simulation and industrial segments have been profitable. Treading water right now. Long road ahead. Wait and see before stepping in.

Opinion about JTR-X: Doesn't know this company. Loves the space. Names with a good name, like "green" move well. They produce organic foods, and people are looking to eat healthier. Fancy name. Fancy products.

Opinion about INP-X: They do canola mainly. At these prices the stock is so cheap. He sold because he was not seeing enough capital being deployed in Canola streams.

Opinion about CFP-T: Homebuilding stocks in the US have been going straight up, but Canadian forestry stocks have been going the other way. WFG has done the best in holding its share price.IFP and CFP have really started to bottom on the charts. He hasn't done enough digging to know who has a better earnings…

Opinion about CFX-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research CFX has been on a steady downtrend. Revenue has been in decline over the last two years, free cash flow has gone negative and it has been operating at a net loss since 2019. Debt has been increasing as well and net…

Opinion about FCC-X: Cobalt is attractive but this is not a cheap producer, because they're in Canada and not Russia or Congo.

Opinion about ORV-T: He owns it around these levels. They have mines in Bolivia and Spain and looking to acquire in Argentina. The property they just bought has costs of $500-$650 per ounce of gold. He is concerned about the revolving door on management. He does not know where gold prices are going to go.…

Opinion about BSX-T: They have a large Brazilian gold deposit. The problem here are indigenous people challenges there and a government contract that pays out a crazy amount to the managers. This payout is not aligned to the shareholders' interests. Then again, it's a cheap stock vs. gold in the ground.

Opinion about LIO-X: Fiji is an interesting place. They have raised $85 Million last year when it was tough. If they get this thing going it will build up confidence. They are putting a relatively small scale gold mine into production while doing exploration. They should eventually get bought out.

Opinion about NIF.UN-T: There is no dividend. Sales are up but earnings are less negative rather than positive. Earnings growth forecast for this year is zero.

Opinion about TKO-T: Does not own shares. Prefers companies companies with lower costs and higher return on capital. 

Opinion about WFG-T: (A Top Pick Oct 17/24, Down 6%) (Note the short timeframe.) Chose this based on historical seasonality for lumber. Surprised those stocks aren't acting better, especially since the California fires.

Opinion about WEF-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research WEF has rallied with interest rates, which help the sector, but is still down 26% for the year and 37% over 52 weeks. Note the dividend was cancelled in November 2023 and none is paid currently. This week WEF announced it would…

Opinion about ADN-T: Unique company in Canada that gives investors a way to own an uncorrelated infrastructure-type asset. No sawmills, just a pure play on timber land. Many institutions and pension funds would have a small part of their portfolio in it. Pays a dividend.

Opinion about ABX-T: Problems in Mali, and company's short-term performance depends on that outcome. High operating costs in Nevada goldfields. Has decided to be a mining company rather than a gold mining company, which an increasing amount of revenue coming from copper. Much growth will come from Pakistan project, which he likes but the market…

Opinion about CHE.UN-T: Is okay to open a small position now, then especially if it breaks out to new highs above $12. The issue is that he expects a bigger correction in 6-8 weeks.

Opinion about K-T: Whole bunch of decent assets, including a new one in Ontario. Stock will either go up of its own volition, or get taken over. Stock's performed well due to good cost containment. Good production growth and pipeline. Firing on all cylinders.

Opinion about PGM-X: $2.25 price target. Growing pains starting up a mine. He'd be averaging down. Issues always signal a really good entry point at cheap valuations. Have to be patient. This wouldn't be his only holding; he'd own it amongst at least 5-10 companies.

Opinion about S-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research It is certainly not beyond possibility. Bloomberg default ratio is 7.36%, which is very high for that indicator. Cash flow was negative in the last quarter, yet 12-month interest expenses were $36.1M net. With its small size and Cuban and other issues,…

Opinion about TBL-T: There were a couple of subtle things went on with the trust conversion which discouraged a lot of investors. An illiquid stock. Most of their exposure is in B.C. and Alberta where housing is still very strong. Thinks we're at the peak of a cycle so don't have it as a long…

Opinion about TECK.B-T: He likes metals and is buying. Likes copper and precious metals. There is support for Teck going back to late 2023 and it recently bounced up. It's a swing trade. This might hit $60. The chart looks positive, but be ready to sell if the chart fails.

Opinion about CIA-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research EPS came in at $0.24 beating estimates of $0.20. Revenue came in at $506.89M beating forecasts of $486.08M and displayed growth of 31% year-over-year. Profit more than doubled on a year-over-year basis coming in at $126.46M. The board approved the company's $470.7-million…

Opinion about FM-T: Looking at it with renewed interest. Political situation has changed, license may be reinstated. That's critical to this company going forward, but also critical for Panama. Multi-decade reserve life, produces 1.5% of world's copper. Cautiously optimistic. Potential outsized upside for a risk-hungry investor.

Opinion about G-T: (A Top Pick Oct 12/18, Up 2%) He still likes gold, Newmont (which acquired G-T) and Goldcorp.

Opinion about LUN-T: Bigger consolidation through most of 2024. Downtrend broken, starting to push higher. Higher highs and lows. RSI is accelerating, institutions are stepping in to buy. (The copper chart also looks to be reaccelerating, testing the key $15 level, and the next technical upside target would be ~$16. That would be a tailwind.)…

Opinion about NGD-T: Collection of Tier 2 assets. Never been fond of Ontario assets. He likes higher quality. Could do very well with a rising price for gold, which tends to favour the marginal over the lower-cost producer.

Opinion about PDL-T: (A Top Pick Mar 15/19, Up 17%) It was bought back in October and so he does not hold this any longer.

Opinion about SVM-T: Part of syndicate that brought company to markets. Financials in China a little opaque, but company has been generous to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Would recommend buying. 

Opinion about WPK-T: (A Top Pick May 30/23, Down 11.1%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with WPK has triggered its stop at $39.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  This will result in a net investment loss of 9%, when combined with the previous recommendations.    

Opinion about YRI-T: Uptrend occurring right now.Smaller than larger players in sector.Company trying to breakout.Hesitant to buy. Give stock a chance to prove it can breakout. 

Opinion about XAU-T: He rarely talks about Gold. He thinks it is a strong sector bet. It is been out of favor for so long that mines have closed, productions have closed, mergers and acquisitions happened. Central Banks are now massive buyers of Gold. they want to get out of the US dollar. The Fed…

Opinion about STC-T: The chart shows a massive spike up, massive drop, and now recovery in the past year.  They likely paid too much for a company in 2022 and were trading at a high PE. He had added shares in 2023-4 after a new CEO started bundling products, focus on margins and integrated companies.…

Opinion about SHOP-T: Very high valuation. On any fears of potential slowing, stock moves quite a bit. People probably trade it a lot. Great company, democratizing e-commerce for everybody. Tariffs may impact volumes until we get more clarity.

Opinion about CMG-T: Spiked up on the close last week. Everything looks really good about this for the long term, everything says you should own some. RSI against S&P since 2022 has been really good, up and to the right. Buy some today with a partial position, then add a second component on a further breakout,…

Opinion about CSU-T: The chart shows a definite uptrend, but the most recent high has stalled at the early-2025 high. That's okay. It's consolidating. Normal. If we break the current level, we're likely in for another run upwards. Hold if you already own. If not, keep an eye on the last low of $4,500.

Opinion about MDF-T: (A Top Pick Sep 25/23, Up 63%) It was bought out, an undervalued Canadian tech company as leaders in e-procurement in both Canada and the U.S. This stock was too cheap for too long, then KKR bought it last May. He thought the buying price was way too late.

Opinion about SW-T: He follows this, but does not own it. They just reported an earnings miss. He does not see their business model panning out on the financial statements. Now trading under $12, he expects more downward pressure.

Opinion about TC-T: Sold because its ROIC returns started to get a bit wonky. In fact in last 3 years, ROIC has been negative. Satellite internet access has eaten the lunch of fibre. Hard to form a moat around its domain business. Wait for ROIC to be in excess of 20% for at least 3…

Opinion about HE-T: Generally not a fan of the Chinese inter-listed companies. He has a Short position in this one. There are better places to be.

Opinion about PSK-T: Second in line behind TPZ for what he'd want to own in terms of O&G royalty companies and infrastructure.

Opinion about BIR-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research For natural gas, we would consider BIR 'decent' but would prefer TOU or AAV or ARX.  But we would be fine holding it still based on valuation and longer term potential. So it depends on what else is owned. We would not…

Opinion about CVE-T: Both oil and oil in Canada are just drifting. No real catalyst imminent. Trying to restructure and clean things up, and they've been very transparent on that. Great company, high-quality business. Still great margins, throwing off lots of $$. Inexpensive; can't sit around and wait for a breakout, because when the moves…

Opinion about TAO-T: (A Top Pick April 23/13. Long Tag Oil (TAO-T) and Short Imperial Oil (IMO-T). Down 42.51%.) Did an equity issue last fall at about $4.40, which the Street didn’t like. This is a New Zealand oil/gas play and they have about 5 or 6 catalysts coming up in terms of major wells.

Opinion about ECA-T: Just beat earnings and have increased production. Cheap valuation compared to peers. But it's getting more expensive heading into 2021. There's no growth here, but that goes with the entire oil patch. The real issue is will they survive. Their balance sheet is getting better, but still high for a blue-chip name.…

Opinion about IPL-T: In the midst of a bidding war. More of a hold than a buy. Prospects for material upside are not very high. Better opportunities elsewhere. If you made profits, take some and invest in something like GEI or even TWM, if you have a higher risk tolerance.

Opinion about PD-T: (A Top Pick May 23/24, Down 37%) He sold this around $90. It's tied to the fall in oil prices as drilling activity slides. Shares are at a 28% free cash flow yield, but he isn't confident about that figure. Revisit this in maybe 6 months after the market absorbs OPEC oversupply.

Opinion about SPB-T: (A Top Pick Mar 11/24, Down 10%) Quebec gets really cold unless they have propane to keep the lights on. Really stable, consistent income business. Distribution includes all over the US. Bought compressed natural gas business. Got stopped out, then reloaded to their income mandate around $6.

Opinion about TRP-T: He owned it for a while. Had a big run-up last year but thinks it is pretty much done now with a lot of insider selling. Tends to have big swings.

Opinion about CRP-T: (A Top Pick April 3/14. Down 12%.) A fully integrated agricultural company with a railroad to their elevators along with production of legumes and wheat. Thinks it should deliver quite nicely this summer because of what is going on in California. Feels drought is going to haunt us from a food inflation…

Opinion about BOY-T: This is a funny one. The book value is $4.80. They started a few more projects in China. It is not for him, but he can see why somebody would like it.

Opinion about WCN-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research Yesterday, Bloomberg posted an article noting it may ultimately cost more to address a high-temperature event at WCN's Chiquita Canyon Landfill than previously thought. The company has budgeted for $100M to $150M in remediation costs this year but Bloomberg said it may…

Opinion about BBD.B-T: (A Top Pick Jun 21/24, Up 28%) Gaining altitude. Technological leadership in medium- and long-range aircraft. Order book looks pretty robust, production slate is full. After-market parts and service provide stable revenue. Airplanes can be repurposed for military use, and Canada's recently upped defense spending commitments.Long and complex supply chain, and tariffs…

Opinion about TIH-T: Is a catch-up trade that will test previous highs around $132. If we are starting a new cycle, copper will benefit. The chart shows higher highs and higher lows, but consolidation lies ahead as the USD rallies. (Analysts’ price target is $128.89)

Opinion about T-T: Owns it just for the yield. As long as the stock doesn't go down, he doesn't expect that much from it. Should be able to clean up the business and the balance sheet, and that's happening. Seems that it can increase pricing on cell plans incrementally. Telco that's the most transparent on…