TMX Group (X.TO)

It has sold off in the last two months along with US exchange stocks over fears that prediction markets will take market share from stock exchanges. Management has done a fine job of diversifying business into recurring revenues. They just bought Cboe. Trades cheaply under 20x PE. TMX hold proprietary data, so AI can't replicate that.

Globally, stock exchanges want more and more data. TMX's business is growing. The stock declined because of the fall in commodity prices from the Iran war, but it will come back. This is a long-term hold.

Likes it Investors overlook it. Pays a bit of a yield. The TSX and TSX-V exchanges have been solid businesses. TMX is also entering a new data analytics platform. It has good recurring revenue based on subscriptions. It was hit by the broad software sell-off. Will do well long term, but need to see a price floor during this decline.

It had a nice run up, then went down. Investors have overlooked TMX for the long term. They operate solid businesses. When volatility spikes, they make money off higher volumes. They generate big money from their data analytics platform. In 2017, they bought Trade Port, a European energy trading software platform, and in 2024 bought VettaFi (to help create ETFs) which is a fast-growing business. TMX sales grew 16%, EBITDA beat by 7% while net income more than doubled. After that report, TMX reported two companies it bought which expanded their debt. That's why shares took a hit.

Long-term growth profile for trading exchanges does have a lot of cyclicality. Very vulnerable potentially on the chart. Pulling back to last level of support. If it holds, great entry location. His crystal ball is a bit foggy sometimes, so he can't say if it'll hold or not ;)

If you're a trader, good risk/reward here. Lots of resistance up in the $50 range. Could have more downside risk; if we go into recession, there's less trading. At best, do half a position now.

Quite bullish. Has done phenomenal job growing. Business is recurring and extremely sticky. Pullback is a buying opportunity. No structural issues. More Canadian IPOs would help. A valuation reset to take advantage of.

Hit his radar recently. Will work if you buy around these levels. PEG isn't 1, but still very good value. Painful to buy things when they're down, chart is scary, but there's upside.

It pulled back like all exchanges after the US announcement allowed futures trading in prediction markets. There is way too much gambling--it isn't investing. So, there is fear that this will take away some of the options trading from the TMX Group, which has a big options business. TMX trades at a cheap 20x. Exchanges aren't going anywhere. They have strong recurring revenue from infotech. This will grow double digits and raise dividends for many years. He is constantly adding shares.

It owns the Montreal exchange, other trading platforms and the software that supports them. It has a unique position in the financial industry. He considers it not a trading platform but a toll road. It made a recent acquisition of CBOE Canada and Australia. CBOE Canada is the only alternative trading platform not owned by TMX. The TSX and Venture own nearly 50 % of all mining listings in the world and the second largest is Australia. Together they are a mining powerhouse. It has been around since its IPO in 2003 at $3.50.          Buy 6  Hold 2  Sell 0

The basis of this company is, essentially, trading volumes. Increased trading volumes in March, up 33%. Heavy trading, lots of volatility, VIX over 30. Steady gainer over time. Also makes $$ off listings. Will probably use AI to its benefit.

Stock's grown by roughly 10% clip over last 10-20 years. If you own, definitely continue to hold.

He owns CME instead due to the bigger market there.

Simple business, often overlooked by investors. Compounded really nicely. Core operations of operating the exchanges are like a toll road. Benefits from increased volumes. During volatility, benefits from derivatives volumes increasing. 

The real story is in data analytics -- creating unique, niche benchmarks for ETF issuers and collecting index licensing fees. The company’s fastest-growing segment. Margin expansion. Yield is 1.89%.

The question was how will AI affect it. His answer was that AI should help it but only incrementally and not profoundly, and won't make major changes in its EPS profile. The quality is there but there is uncertainty in the capital markets. It is below its 200 day moving average so technically he wouldn't buy it.