Canfor Corp

CFP-T

TSE:CFP

13.26
0.14 (1.07%)
Canfor Corporation is a Canadian integrated forest products company based in Vancouver, British Columbia.
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Analysis and Opinions about CFP-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
December 17, 2019
Jim Pattison's bid to go private has ended. Buy on weakness; offers solid, long-term value. Pattison sees value. But be patient with this one. With the rejection, expect overreaction to the downside. Buy around $11-12.
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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
December 17, 2019
Jim Pattison's bid to go private has ended. Buy on weakness; offers solid, long-term value. Pattison sees value. But be patient with this one. With the rejection, expect overreaction to the downside. Buy around $11-12.
BUY
BUY
December 16, 2019

It is going to be a close call as to whether the tender results in their favour. There have been dissenters. BC has had it really rough in the forestry industry. The US housing market is picking up so you are seeing lumber prices picking up. They are the largest lumber producer and the lowest cost producer.

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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
December 16, 2019

It is going to be a close call as to whether the tender results in their favour. There have been dissenters. BC has had it really rough in the forestry industry. The US housing market is picking up so you are seeing lumber prices picking up. They are the largest lumber producer and the lowest cost producer.

SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
November 1, 2019
It is in the middle of a takeover, where it has agreed to be taken over by a majority shareholder. Not all the shareholders are happy about this. It is being sold at cycle lows. At $16 per share today it was an 80% premium to where the shares traded the day before the offer. There may be some arbitrage value, if they can get $16.50-$17.00, but there is not much upside from here.
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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
November 1, 2019
It is in the middle of a takeover, where it has agreed to be taken over by a majority shareholder. Not all the shareholders are happy about this. It is being sold at cycle lows. At $16 per share today it was an 80% premium to where the shares traded the day before the offer. There may be some arbitrage value, if they can get $16.50-$17.00, but there is not much upside from here.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 22, 2019
Lumber prices are trending down this year and we're closer to the bottom. This is also a seasonal stock with great Decembers-Januaries, so maybe buy in the fall. Home building remains decent in the U.S., too. Forestry is a tough space and highly cyclical.
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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
July 22, 2019
Lumber prices are trending down this year and we're closer to the bottom. This is also a seasonal stock with great Decembers-Januaries, so maybe buy in the fall. Home building remains decent in the U.S., too. Forestry is a tough space and highly cyclical.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 10, 2019
OSB-T vs. CFP-T. Looking at a long term chart of lumber futures, we are getting back to levels from when the economic levels were much weaker. Individually he is not sure that the prices are washed out. There may be more downsides in the more economically sensitive names.
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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
June 10, 2019
OSB-T vs. CFP-T. Looking at a long term chart of lumber futures, we are getting back to levels from when the economic levels were much weaker. Individually he is not sure that the prices are washed out. There may be more downsides in the more economically sensitive names.
BUY
BUY
May 21, 2019
Forest stocks have really been taking a hit. You could probably open a position today, as sentiment and last couple of quarters have been negative. Indications that US lumber pricing and new home construction are starting to pick up. Lumber is at trough prices, so that's usually a good time to get in.
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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
May 21, 2019
Forest stocks have really been taking a hit. You could probably open a position today, as sentiment and last couple of quarters have been negative. Indications that US lumber pricing and new home construction are starting to pick up. Lumber is at trough prices, so that's usually a good time to get in.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 25, 2019
Back end of slowing US housing market. He owns Western Forest Products (WEF), which has high-end finishes, and selling into Asia, so demand on pricing is better; almost 4.5% dividend; small debt vs. cash. Whereas Canfor is cyclically linked, so you don't want to own it at this point in the cycle. Costs are up, so margins are squeezed. Wouldn't be looking at these levels.
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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
April 25, 2019
Back end of slowing US housing market. He owns Western Forest Products (WEF), which has high-end finishes, and selling into Asia, so demand on pricing is better; almost 4.5% dividend; small debt vs. cash. Whereas Canfor is cyclically linked, so you don't want to own it at this point in the cycle. Costs are up, so margins are squeezed. Wouldn't be looking at these levels.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 23, 2019
West Fraser vs. Canfor He owns neither, as lumber prices are weak and not rebounding in the spring when they usually do. They're trading near book value. The upcoming quarter will be weak for lumber. Be cautious here, but start doing your homework on them.
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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
April 23, 2019
West Fraser vs. Canfor He owns neither, as lumber prices are weak and not rebounding in the spring when they usually do. They're trading near book value. The upcoming quarter will be weak for lumber. Be cautious here, but start doing your homework on them.
WAIT
WAIT
April 5, 2019
This industry is tempting as it appears to be setting a bottom. It still looks like it is still heading lower. He needs to see a move above $16.50 before he would be interested.
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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
April 5, 2019
This industry is tempting as it appears to be setting a bottom. It still looks like it is still heading lower. He needs to see a move above $16.50 before he would be interested.
BUY
BUY
November 16, 2018
In a great spot now if you want to enter. Building a bit of a base, likes the selloff, nice runup.
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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
November 16, 2018
In a great spot now if you want to enter. Building a bit of a base, likes the selloff, nice runup.
BUY
BUY
October 23, 2017

It is doing well despite the problems around NAFTA and WTO. The millennials are getting into the housing market and that is a long trend, which this company benefits from. The US will need the lumber for all the houses needed. He is positive on forest products stocks.

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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
October 23, 2017

It is doing well despite the problems around NAFTA and WTO. The millennials are getting into the housing market and that is a long trend, which this company benefits from. The US will need the lumber for all the houses needed. He is positive on forest products stocks.

BUY
BUY
October 24, 2016

CFP-T vs. CFX-T. CFP-T has more leverage to building products. He prefers it over CFX-T. He does not invest in pulp.

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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
October 24, 2016

CFP-T vs. CFX-T. CFP-T has more leverage to building products. He prefers it over CFX-T. He does not invest in pulp.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 24, 2016

He likes this as a company, but as long as we are in this interminable fight over softwood lumber duties, he wouldn’t go anywhere near any of these stocks. Once this dispute is resolved, and it will be eventually, this could very well be a Buy.

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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
October 24, 2016

He likes this as a company, but as long as we are in this interminable fight over softwood lumber duties, he wouldn’t go anywhere near any of these stocks. Once this dispute is resolved, and it will be eventually, this could very well be a Buy.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 23, 2016

Valuation is very cheap. Lumber is a hugely contentious issue between Canada and the US, which is one of the problems this industry faces. Also, household formations have changed and many generations are just opting to live in condos, etc. There are under 1 million units currently in the US versus 1.4 million historically. He doesn’t think this is going to pick up meaningfully. Any little uptick will be positive for it.

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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
September 23, 2016

Valuation is very cheap. Lumber is a hugely contentious issue between Canada and the US, which is one of the problems this industry faces. Also, household formations have changed and many generations are just opting to live in condos, etc. There are under 1 million units currently in the US versus 1.4 million historically. He doesn’t think this is going to pick up meaningfully. Any little uptick will be positive for it.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 21, 2016

Ranks a bit outside of his fundamental and technical screening. The stock is yo-yoing which has to do with housing starts and new home sales.

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Canfor Corp (CFP-T)
September 21, 2016

Ranks a bit outside of his fundamental and technical screening. The stock is yo-yoing which has to do with housing starts and new home sales.

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