PrairieSky Royalty

This is a controversial name because it is a long term asset being valued on near term momentum and missed numbers last quarter. They don’t give projections on production numbers. They have no debt. It is a buy and hold kind of stock. (Analysts’ target: $32.07).

(A Top Pick Mar 20/17, Up 4%) His only energy stock. It is not a producer but is a royalty company. They missed on production guidance by 900 barrels and they lost 8-9% and it makes no sense to him. He likes it. It is a way to have oil exposure without capital risk. It is nice light oil. The balance sheet is impeccable.

Is the only Canadian oil stock he owns. [see CPG-Tcomment today.]

One of the oil patch casualties that has actually done okay. He likes royalty structures because you don’t have capital investment risks, and this one has no debt on the balance sheet. Oil price recovery gives them torque to the upside. During the horrific oil environment of 2015-2016, they proved their ability to generate good cash flow. Dividend yield of 2.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $34.75.)

He would Sell this in favour of more conventional producers. It’s an awesome company, but from a stock perspective, he is kind of challenged to be asked to pay 27X cash flow. Feels the stock is approaching fair value.

(A Top Pick Sept 2/15. Up 8.33%.) This is an easy one, because it is a royalty. There is no drilling involved. Essentially, all the cash flow can be paid out to shareholders. There is no debt involved in the story. However, the valuation is really stretched now.

A less volatile play than a regular producer, as they don’t have the same operating leverage. It is a royalty business, which means they don’t own trucks etc., but are still ultimately at the whim of commodity prices. A very long-term high-quality business where you look at the free cash flow you are getting today under certain scenarios. The key, over the long, long term, is the optionality. You benefit from things like improvements in technology. A great model. Good management.

He loves this at $15. Because other people drill their land, you don’t quite know how the world is going to play out. The gas market has had a great jump in gas, and this looks a lot better. It is a great thing to own long-term, but he would just like to try and steal it if he can be patient. He came within $2 in the spring.

A royalty company that gets its money at the top, as opposed to an operating company. Have a good land position, and their participation is high on the food chain. A great place to park funds.

If you owned Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T), then you now own some of this stock’s shares. A royalty company and very, very expensive.

(Market Call Minute.) He really likes the CEO, but the valuation is beyond nosebleed level.

A very good business model. You collect a nice stream of cash, depending on how much people put into the ground in your zone. Keep in mind that there is torque to the model. When energy prices are higher, more people want to drill and you get better pricing. Today it is the exact opposite. Management is very competent and are return oriented. If looking for a high-quality way to play energy, this is the perfect type of business.

(A Top Pick April 2/15. Down 16.23%.) Has been trimming his position. Valuation is rich, especially when comparing to a Freehold Royalty (FRU-T). Also, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) vended their freehold land and gross overriding royalties into this company for an almost 20% shareholder basis. They’ve given indications that they want to dividend half of those 44 million shares to CNQ shareholders, selling the other half on the market. That creates an overhang for shareholders of Prairie Sky. Still likes the company.