Canada Goose Holdings

GOOS-T

A hot brand that has exceeded his expectations. But the stock is overpriced and he's not convinced this brand is sustainable. The stock is also expensive. US-China trade tensions don't help.

Down 8.5% today The market is upset they did not increase their guidance. The CEO said why should they raise guidance in summer, when seasonally this is a should time for them. The fact he didn't increase the guidance has led to the big sell off -- magnified by today's down move in the market. This move down today makes no sense.

It is very expensive even though it has pulled back.

A super high-growth company but such companies which usually suffer lumpy returns. What kind of valuation can you put on this? Peers trade at 30x earnings with 20% growth in this sector. GOOS is less than that on a PEG ratio standpoint, so they have room to grow on a multiple and earnings standpoint. The stock fell after missing their last quarter. Maybe it was a one-time blip. Their shops in malls attract lines, so that indicates healthy demand. Doesn't pay a dividend.

A seasonal buy? He thinks it may be an interesting time to enter. Both domestically and globally, sales have been good. The balance sheet is working fine. You should expect double-digit sales growth going forward. Trading at 28 times earnings, but he would still be a buyer.

It was trading way way up there, then it missed its earnings a bit which is pulling this stock back to Earth. It's still not cheap. Don't catch a falling knife. It's a wonderful company though. No stock can go up forever.

Got hammered last week. The name has been around for 60 years. He thinks it is going to do OK. Great Management team. Probably needs another quarter before he gets in. They are expanding around the world.

Punished on earnings? It only narrowly missed earnings and the stock is down 26% today. It is trading closer to 23 times earnings. He wants to see the three day rule unfold -- don't jump into this too quickly and let it stabilize. Don't try to catch the falling knife.

Might be time to get in if you like the space. It's switching out of NA markets. Can be a viable play in China. Never try to catch a falling knife. Wait for the dust to settle. Recent move has created some decent value in the stock. Be aware that small caps in specialized areas react strongly to a bad quarter.

China impact? An unusual company that it is a multi-national demand consumer product manufacture. It is not a value stock. He holds it personally, but not for clients. It did sell off when tensions over China began, which caused them to delay a Chinese store opening. Long term this will be a great company to own. In the short term, you also have to consider this as a luxury item and the global economy appears to be slowing.

A good trend with an uptrend. Support is at $50 and he expects testing at $60. But it is enjoying higher highs and lows.

It's expensive, though it's growing into its 40x valuation. They do have a strong brand that continues to strengthen as they open more stores globally. They have a history of beating earnings forecasts. The chart is rangebound between $65-95, and will likely break upwards. It could move big on a strong report in June. It should continue to grow.

He's been wrong about GOOS from the start; he missed it. GOOS has been volatile. He prefers a bigger global brand like Louis Vuitton rather than the narrower Canada Goose.

They have a done a good job of growing their footprint internationally. They got caught up in the Canada/China disputes. The issue is the high multiple. If demand changes the stock will get crushed. It is high risk / high reward. He would not go after this.

The Goose soared in early 2018--an incredible chart. But it got ahead of itself after mid-2018 with lower highs and lowers lows, which is a bearish trend. Wait until the stock settles in the fall and breaks out of this downward pattern.