Canada Goose Holdings

GOOS-T

China impact? An unusual company that it is a multi-national demand consumer product manufacture. It is not a value stock. He holds it personally, but not for clients. It did sell off when tensions over China began, which caused them to delay a Chinese store opening. Long term this will be a great company to own. In the short term, you also have to consider this as a luxury item and the global economy appears to be slowing.

A good trend with an uptrend. Support is at $50 and he expects testing at $60. But it is enjoying higher highs and lows.

It's expensive, though it's growing into its 40x valuation. They do have a strong brand that continues to strengthen as they open more stores globally. They have a history of beating earnings forecasts. The chart is rangebound between $65-95, and will likely break upwards. It could move big on a strong report in June. It should continue to grow.

He's been wrong about GOOS from the start; he missed it. GOOS has been volatile. He prefers a bigger global brand like Louis Vuitton rather than the narrower Canada Goose.

They have a done a good job of growing their footprint internationally. They got caught up in the Canada/China disputes. The issue is the high multiple. If demand changes the stock will get crushed. It is high risk / high reward. He would not go after this.

The Goose soared in early 2018--an incredible chart. But it got ahead of itself after mid-2018 with lower highs and lowers lows, which is a bearish trend. Wait until the stock settles in the fall and breaks out of this downward pattern.

Really interesting company. Very good job of mastering direct to consumer plus wholesale. Sales going up drastically, high quality products. Worth a hard look at these levels.

The most expensive stock on the comp table, and so that is the issue. Analysts say it's fully priced, despite the great quarter. Hard to start pushing the multiple higher. She wouldn't buy it here, but she doesn't know if she'd be selling it either.

Iconic Canadian brand. China-Canada relations are a concern. Stocks with Chinese exposure have pulled back. Operationally, everything is great. Will continue to expand. You can own names like this and Tim Horton's, because there's tremendous value in the brand.

(A Top Pick Mar 13/18, Up 53%) It's very risky now and was risky when he suggested it. He wouldn't hold it now. It must show strength above $70. This could fall to $59 and below. It's struggling now.

It has been a good IPO story. He sold after the IPO. It is a premier retailer and believes they can defend their margins. This jacket is in demand globally, so he sees more growth to come. It is just too expensive right now for him to re-enter.

A luxury brand and many are rushing out to buy a $900 parka. They're a one-pony show, though they diversifying away from making only coats. The China situation is certainly a concern. They're too expensive now, anyway, and relatively new (he wants to see more history). One store is near his Vancouver office and he's seen long line-ups. But where are its recurring revenue (sales from the same customer)?

He is a value manager and views this as a growth stock so he is not a buyer of it. He likes the product and sees lots of people using it. The stock is too expensive and he sees it is being impacted by China tariff worries. Long term you would want to own it.

Extremely high PE of 68. A lot of their growth was supposed to come from China, but China-Canada relations are terrible now. Likely to impact GOOD negatively.

Problem is that the chart isn't that long. If the cycle is on a 4-year reset, he'd expect discretionary names to outperform. So watch to see if it holds above support, and the next support level is $44-45 to look to for exposure. There's further downward pressure, plus the tensions between China and Canada. If it can break above, should suggest a new uptrend. But for now, wait.