Birchcliff Energy Ltd.

BIR-T

Analysis and Opinions about BIR-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 24, 2020
The company has disappointed the market that there will not be a surplus of free cash flow in 2020. However, he believes in 2021 they will be able to pay down debt aggressively and still have surplus to buy back shares and increase the dividend. By 2024 the free cash flow will be in excess of $760 million and he thinks they will use this to grow shareholder value. Yield 5.88% (Analysts’ price target is $4.23)
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The company has disappointed the market that there will not be a surplus of free cash flow in 2020. However, he believes in 2021 they will be able to pay down debt aggressively and still have surplus to buy back shares and increase the dividend. By 2024 the free cash flow will be in excess of $760 million and he thinks they will use this to grow shareholder value. Yield 5.88% (Analysts’ price target is $4.23)
WATCH
WATCH
January 23, 2020
Their spending budget exceeds cash flow. He likes the management team. There is the possibility of a reserve write down. It is probably interesting at this level. But he would let it settle out for a while and not get involved.
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Their spending budget exceeds cash flow. He likes the management team. There is the possibility of a reserve write down. It is probably interesting at this level. But he would let it settle out for a while and not get involved.
BUY
BUY
December 19, 2019
He is not shy about taking a profit when he makes the easy money. It has a 12% free cash flow yield. He would like to see more inside ownership but it is a good way to get exposure to an increasing commodity price backdrop.
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He is not shy about taking a profit when he makes the easy money. It has a 12% free cash flow yield. He would like to see more inside ownership but it is a good way to get exposure to an increasing commodity price backdrop.
BUY
BUY
November 21, 2019
About a 5% monthly dividend. He intends to buy more. The balance sheet is not a problem. They will be a big beneficiary of LNG. The management team has done a good job in the past for shareholders.
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About a 5% monthly dividend. He intends to buy more. The balance sheet is not a problem. They will be a big beneficiary of LNG. The management team has done a good job in the past for shareholders.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
October 10, 2019
How does it change a stock when it leaves the TSX? It is just a market cap thing. It has nothing to do with the value of the company. They benefit from LNG. Tax loss selling will attach this one but be will be a buyer.
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How does it change a stock when it leaves the TSX? It is just a market cap thing. It has nothing to do with the value of the company. They benefit from LNG. Tax loss selling will attach this one but be will be a buyer.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
September 16, 2019
It has had a nice bounce and he would be a buyer on any weakness. He has a target of $5 in twelve months. It is over a 4% dividend yield.
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It has had a nice bounce and he would be a buyer on any weakness. He has a target of $5 in twelve months. It is over a 4% dividend yield.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 30, 2019

There's an abundance of natural gas, but there's a lag in the build-out for further LNG capacity. Globally, there's an overbuild of LNG capacity that takes time to soak up; Euro nat gas prices have plunged. He's not excited by natural gas. Pays almost a 6% yield because the share price has fallen so much. Nothing against BIR, but the nat gas space is troubled.

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There's an abundance of natural gas, but there's a lag in the build-out for further LNG capacity. Globally, there's an overbuild of LNG capacity that takes time to soak up; Euro nat gas prices have plunged. He's not excited by natural gas. Pays almost a 6% yield because the share price has fallen so much. Nothing against BIR, but the nat gas space is troubled.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 26, 2019
Nat Gas producer in the North West Alberta. 5.44% dividend yield. He likes it a lot and has a $5 target. (Analysts’ price target is $4.70)
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Nat Gas producer in the North West Alberta. 5.44% dividend yield. He likes it a lot and has a $5 target. (Analysts’ price target is $4.70)
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
July 25, 2019
Likes the company. His one-year price target is $5. Balance sheet very strong, good growth potential when gas prices pick up. Intends to buy more. Yield is about 3.5%. Raised dividend about 5% a couple of months ago.
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Likes the company. His one-year price target is $5. Balance sheet very strong, good growth potential when gas prices pick up. Intends to buy more. Yield is about 3.5%. Raised dividend about 5% a couple of months ago.
HOLD
HOLD
July 17, 2019
A premiere gas producer with good critical scale. He owns it, but it will take some patience. It has 20% in liquids and their gas pricing is non-AECO and non-Station 2 (BC), moving into the Chicago market.
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A premiere gas producer with good critical scale. He owns it, but it will take some patience. It has 20% in liquids and their gas pricing is non-AECO and non-Station 2 (BC), moving into the Chicago market.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 28, 2019
(A Top Pick Mar 16/18, Up 12%) The balance sheet is in good shape. They are now guiding flat. They will knock off some debt this year. Book value is $6.67 and he has a $7 target. He keeps on adding to it. They raised the dividend in the last quarter.
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(A Top Pick Mar 16/18, Up 12%) The balance sheet is in good shape. They are now guiding flat. They will knock off some debt this year. Book value is $6.67 and he has a $7 target. He keeps on adding to it. They raised the dividend in the last quarter.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 19, 2019
He likes energy in general, and BIR will likely reach $5, but doesn't know if it'll rise higher than that.
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He likes energy in general, and BIR will likely reach $5, but doesn't know if it'll rise higher than that.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 8, 2019
He is challenged with natural gas in general in North America. There is a tonne of low cost supply. There are other names he would strongly prefer. He would not have exposure to Canadian nat gas stocks now.
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He is challenged with natural gas in general in North America. There is a tonne of low cost supply. There are other names he would strongly prefer. He would not have exposure to Canadian nat gas stocks now.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 28, 2019
(A Top Pick Feb 18/18, Up 15%) It has done well. They are generating cash flow even in the coming year. Below $3.20 it is a buy and below $3 it is a table pounding buy.
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(A Top Pick Feb 18/18, Up 15%) It has done well. They are generating cash flow even in the coming year. Below $3.20 it is a buy and below $3 it is a table pounding buy.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 14, 2019
They are natural gas and people are frustrated with Nat Gas companies. Nat Gas is up in the states but this one has been hit. It is the difference between Canadian and US pricing differences. In Canada Nat Gas companies don’t have the same robustness from seasonality. Nat Gas will do well again just before the A/C season. Wait until you see Nat Gas going up before getting into this stock.
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They are natural gas and people are frustrated with Nat Gas companies. Nat Gas is up in the states but this one has been hit. It is the difference between Canadian and US pricing differences. In Canada Nat Gas companies don’t have the same robustness from seasonality. Nat Gas will do well again just before the A/C season. Wait until you see Nat Gas going up before getting into this stock.
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