Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (CHE.UN-T)

Everybody loves the dividend here. Made a really bad acquisition 10 years ago, company was punished. Off that bottom, it's been pretty impressive. Q1 beat by 15%, raised guidance. Really good progress on capital allocation -- dividend raises, small tuck-ins, buybacks. Trades ~4.7 EBIT to EBITDA vs. its normal 6.3 mid-cycle valuation. Add on dips.

A top pick last November, because it's one of the leaders in industrial chemicals in North America. There's a lot going on behind the scenes here. He didn't see the downturn in this sector as well as intense competition. Likely, shares won't recover until the economy picks up, but an opportunity now.

Will probably do reasonably well in light of tariffs, as the chemicals they provide for NA water treatment are rather nichey. Well-run company. Its decent and safe dividend makes investors more tolerant of rough waters.

Probably pulled back because of the 10-year treasury rising. Just increased dividend, that should continue. Coming out of a long turnaround. Core holding in his income fund. At $14, he'd probably trim; at $17-18, would probably exit. Yield is 6.4%.

He's traded this a few times. Is one of the most volatile stocks he's ever seen. Unpredictable falls and rallies. Doesn't like it. If you want to own, see if it holds support at $10.50; it's starting to break that. Again, hard to predict this. Maybe, $8.50 the bottom.

Recent pullback along with the market. Support around $10.50, which it is approaching. Unless that breaks materially (more than just a few cents, and more than just a few days), stay with it. You get your dividend, and chart looks fine.

Nice beat, upward revisions on 2024 guidance. Third consecutive guidance raised. Leverage keeps going down, balance sheet firepower keeps improving. Not that expensive. Payout ratio only 52%. Not highest quality, cyclical. Probably still upside.

He owns only a little bit, less than 1%.

Looking at a 5-year chart, getting close to its 5-year high. Nice breakout above $10. If you take the height of the consolidation pattern (resistance was $10 - support of $7 = $3), and add it up again, you get ~$13, at least to start. That's what we're looking for over the shorter term. Then maybe it consolidates and may continue higher over the longer term.

Very interesting company. Makes sulfuric acid, processes spent acids, produces inorganic coagulants for water treatment. A basic industry company, but one of the largest in NA in terms of asset production. 

A lot of people are focusing on semiconductors, but when you make those chips the purity of the sulfuric acid is extremely high, and this company is an integral supplier. This gives it a good competitive advantage especially compared to European peers, as energy prices in Europe are quite high. Should have a good run going forward. Yield is 5.8%.

Also pays a big, fat dividend, which sometimes you need to be cautious on. Drawing a linear regression line helps the chart make more sense, especially with a volatile stock. Linear regression helps you see through all the peaks and valleys. Stockcharts.com is a good place to go for this, as well as most of the discount brokers.

CHE.UN is up 30% YTD, yet remains cheap at 12X earnings. It is a cyclical company with a lot of debt, with a fairyl weak earnings history. But it has improved over the past year, and debt is lower than the very high levels seen in 2019 and 2020. It had to cut its dividend in half in 2020 and has only raised it slightly since. It is expected to show about 7% EPS growth next year. It offers a 5.92% yield currently. We will give it points for its improvement, but with slow growth and a leveraged balance sheet, in addition to its cyclicality, it is still not one of our favourites. Of note, the stock remains at 50% of the price it was more than 10 years ago. 
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The second quarter was a beat across the board and they raised 2024 by 7%. He doesn't see a lot of growth and there are other areas more compelling. It is repurchasing in the near term. 

Well-run. He owns the stock and debentures.

Small company, good takeout candidate. Pretty volatile. Sometimes the high dividend makes him nervous, is he missing something? But this is an underappreciated name. Sulfur and water chemicals. If can get above previous peak, around $10.50, pretty good upside. Really healthy margins. Raised guidance after recent earnings. Nice yield of 7%.

Pricing power. Good name to have in an inflationary environment. You'll be happy 2-3 years out.

Chemtrade posted strong Q1/24 results, and management is now guiding to the upper end of its 2024 guidance range. The operating segments are performing well and with a significantly stronger balance sheet relative to previous years, the Board has approved a 10% share buyback and the company is also considering strategic M&A opportunities. The balance sheet has improved a bit versus prior years as cash flow has grown. It is still cyclical, but we will give it kudos for its strong quarter and guidance. It is also priced well at 7X earnings. We note the company has cut its dividend in the past, however and at 5.5c is still not near its prior 10c level.
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