Western Forest Products Inc.

7.4% dividend and it is not safe--a 540% payout ratio. Lumber prices seem to have bottomed this year and should rise. Will WEF maintain the dividend? Free cash flow is negative. 4 cents of earnings in 2020, rising to 11 cents in 2021 is his outlook. Ranks near the bottom for him.

(A Top Pick Jun 14/19, Down 22%) It's come down quite a lot but he still likes it. Slow down affected them a lot. He's moved on from this. 5% dividend yield. He bought West Fraser instead.

Their last quarter disappointed. He's not sure what the catalyst will be to push this up. The 7% dividend is safe and still healthy, unless product prices remain pressured. WEF has a good balance sheet and financial backing. He's owned this in the past. It could be fine if you hold it long term.

It is his small position in lumber and forest products. You get into these multiyear periods of cyclicality. He thinks you are getting to a bottoming time. In a year to a year and a half you should see a recovery. One of their mills has been on strike for a couple of months and he sees a strong union trying to push for much better bargaining. They have been excluded from the index and that forced some selling. Now is a great time to be looking at these stocks.

Don't get into lumber stocks now. The US housing market is doing very well, but sadly Canadian lumber stocks don't benefit. He owns and likes this (and Interfor). Pity that these stocks don't get any love from the lumber price.

2017-8 saw an uptrend, then fell into a long-term downtrend. There is some improvement in lumber stocks, but they're still pressured. They haven't hit a bottom yet.

He is not hopeful. There is a downtrend line that it is running into from below. If we broke $1.13, from current levels then there more to this story than we know. Since Jun/18, its performance against the S&P has been terrible.

Gotta watch to see what's happening in housing, especially in the US. Worried about shipping numbers since exports to China is down. Would wait for the stock to form a base.

Sector has been beaten down. Possibly something that you should look closely at. It is cyclical so it has its characteristics.

All lumber companies have been slammed this year with low prices. For WEF, demand from China and Japan has really gone down due to trade tensions between China and Canada. WEF still does real estate sales to bolster their income. WEF is near its low. You can pick at this, assuming we don't get a recession.

Forestry stocks have been tough since last September in a straight downtrend. He sold his forestry stocks last fall. Don't enter this sector yet. Not yet. WEF trades at 11x P/E. It pays a safe dividend. The street feels that lumber prices have abosrbed excess invenstory, so maybe this space is bottoming.

Forestry stocks look bad, keep falling. Things are turning around a little, but he needs to see more recovery to buy. These stocks can trend lower for a long time.

Canadian Forestry stocks. Here is an industry that is in a bit of oversupply. Curtailing production should be good in the short term. We are seeing all of these stocks selling towards their lows rather than highs. CFF is selling at a fraction of the book value. They have had negative earnings of late. WFT-T is 1.5 times book. IFP-T is at book value but has a much higher multiple. WEF-T is trading in the middle of the previous two but with a much more significant yield, possibly not as secure. They all have reasonable assets. They are a decent value play and could stand to do well if we get a building resurgence. You have to be patient.

Might be having a mini-recession. Makes money no matter what, as it makes clear cedar for the refinishing market. No debt. One of the companies being given away in the stock market. Yield is 5.42%. (Analysts’ price target is $2.06)

Cheap and getting cheaper. Lumber prices have not recovered, neither has US housing. He would avoid it.