Barrick Gold (ABX-T)

Gold prices strong lately. Overall, commodities very strong. Would recommend holding for the long term. Technically - chart could be better - but fundamentals very strong for this business. 

Pretty big strength in the last 6 months. If you look at the chart, seeing pretty big moves within a band. It wants to get above $24.50 before it takes a shot at $31, which is the peak from 2022. Want to see it break out and then keep momentum going.

Sometimes the biggest in any sector, especially gold, can be kind of mushy. Can be safe, but sometimes acts like dead money. The risk/reward may not be there.

Laggard compared to other stocks and to gold itself. Mystery as to why it's not breaking out, but it's probably something fundamental. A wall around $19-20, needs to break that. 

Good news is that the lows aren't getting lower. It's in a trading band. You can buy when it moves to the bottom and trade the bands, or you can buy on a breakout.

One of the better companies in the gold area. Started growing its copper business. Good balance sheet, nice dividend. Companies themselves have to contend with rising expenses. Under pressure to increase production, it's easier to make an acquisition. Geopolitical risk. 

If you like gold, so easy to buy as an ETF and that would be better. 

Gold a difficult metal to value. Recent strength in gold price good for overall business. Weakness in share price due to inflation concerns from investors (costs a lot to produce gold). ABX is one of the best companies in sector, but is a commodity style business. Overall is a hold for long term investors. 

He doesn't own gold stocks. Bad balance sheet, restructuring. Gold exploration is expensive, easier to just take over another company. Environmentally unfriendly, in bad parts of the world.

Underperforming TSX since 2020. For him, owning the bullion makes a bit more sense, though he doesn't own that either.

He hasn't owned mining companies in a very long time. Shocking to see what's happened to FM with that mine, as it's a great asset. Shows how risky it is to invest in foreign countries outside NA. 

ABX knows how to allocate capital very well. If he were interested in a mining company, this would be the one, as the CEO certainly knows what to do. Eventually, the FM mine has to be up and running. If ABX can run it properly, there's a lot of value that can be created.

Small companies can't exist anymore in this new age of mining, oil/gas. We're going to see a lot of M&A.

Has underperformed the gold price, but so have gold stocks in general. ABX has an unusual good collection of high-quality gold assets. He's done well investing in companies that the CEO has run. Continues to be long this.

Earnings should pick up given the rise in gold prices in recent weeks. This should continue. Guidance says that production side won't be strong in 2024, though copper will see more opportunities than gold. Overall, he sees a little more upside in 2024.

The chart shows resistance broken, and a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. He isn't a gold bug; it's hard to predict gold prices, though it's doing well now. The chart could return to $25, and if it breaks that it could rise further. Doesn't know.

A leader. He doesn't play too much in the gold space. It's more speculative than what he typically buys. Not on his radar. 

He'd prefer RIO, a low-cost leader in the iron ore space, with copper assets and a nice distribution. You could also look at MDI to play the miners, as it gives exposure to the whole sector. 

Does not invest in gold. Hard to justify investment. Share price has not appreciated in 30 years. Not good for shareholders. Capital allocation not good. Only beneficiary is management who collect salary. 

Expects this to fall 3.5%. Gold is essential to any portfolio. He owns physical gold, not the companies, because the costs of production are rising faster than the price of gold. Expects some gold companies to go bust.

Very large business makes it tough to earn  high rate of return.
Gold prices difficult to predict.
Prefers Franco-Nevada & royalties.
Valuation not very good.