Cenovus Energy

CVE-T

Heavy oil? He is bullish on heavy oil as countries like Venezuela have seen production fall to 20 year lows. Mexico is declining as well. This is good for Canada, but we are still pipeline constrained. At $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials he likes CVE-T, MEG-T and BTE-T.

A takeout target? MEG-T is not his largest holding as they have more leverage than he is comfortable with. Their low cost structure and 65 years of production life, he sees them being able to de-leverage themselves back to 2 times cash flow over the next two years. The company will generate over 20% free cash yield at $55 WTI prices and $17.50 heavy oil differential. This makes them the #1 M&A target in Canada -- maybe CVE-T.

(A Top Pick Aug 17/18, Down 4%) The new CEO has done a good job in a very tough energy environment. The crude by rail plan is important for CVE. He sold his shares and bought CNQ-T for its better balance sheet. If oil improves, CVE will rip higher.

CVE vs. SU. Doesn't love energy so much. Has its challenges, China being one of them. Another being energy pricing. Suncor is coming into a level of support. If he owned it, he'd give it the benefit of the doubt and hold. Might be a buy for a more aggressive investor. Cenovus is off its support level, and attempting a trend. Oil tends to do best in the spring. If we see any kind of a rally around $15, he'd sell.

It is one of the two most levered to oil if you really want to make a bet. Technically, it is set up quite well on a point a figure chart, but it is not the leader in the group. He would choose SU-T or CNQ-T.

(A Top Pick Apr 13/18, Down 9%) Had been hoping the differential would recover. It's a political problem. Consolidated into CNQ instead, as it's generating a ton of cash and that's a safe way to be in the space.