FedEx

FDX-N

Play on global trade. Trades at 10x earnings. Wonderfully well run. It's down a ton. Decent dividend yield, strong balance sheet. Exposure to China and Asia. Opportunity to buy well run companies. If it gets cheaper, he'll buy more. Global trade is not going away. Yield is 1.51%. (Analysts’ price target is $207.96)

Amazon is a threat. He models no growth for 2019. That said it has a very low bar here trading at 12 times 2019. They have cost levers. They are finding ways to compete with Amazon. He is modeling now 20% for 2019-2021.

The share price from its $270 peak last year due to fears of slowing global growth, but long-term they are well-positioned to benefit from increasing global trade and e-commerce. It trades at only 12.5x earnings. The US postal service is struggling, so e-commerce companies like Amazon will need to look elsewhere like to FedEx. (Analysts’ price target is $208.54)

(A Top Pick Apr 25/18, Down 20%) They got hurt badly in the fall with weak European results, but it remains a core holding for him. It's a proxy for economic growth around the world and he expects it to bounce back quickly. He believes in it long-term. It's recovered very well since December after hitting all-time highs in September. Now, it's trading at an attractive valuation at 10-11x earnings.

He stays away from single stock exposure and would prefer an ETF instead. Transports are not looking good right now. (Analysts’ price target is $209.00)

It has to break $200 ($10 away), then $220-230. Transports are improving across the board, based on the start of a new 4-year economic view. He would add at these levels. He likes it here.

Sold it in last September. He feels a little naked without it. But it hasn't recovered as much as the rest of the market. First time in over 3 years that they miss top line and bottom line estimates. There has been some problems with the integration with their dutch-based company. The general thesis for the business is still intact. He would like to own again.

(A Top Pick Mar 13/18, Down 27%) Sold it in September at around $244. The writing was in the wall. The perspective from a technical perspective is negative now. Long term probably OK.

It came down a lot after they reduced their 2019 blaming it on macro and tariffs and those kind of things. The bad news is that growth for 2019 is sluggish. Cheap at 10 times 2020 earnings. Well positioned for growth in global commerce. All in he models 16% earning 2019-2020. Quality name on sale. you want to own it when there is doubt. (Analysts’ price target is $221.29)

Trades at 16x earnings and pays a good dividend. This is a good long-term buy. There's only them and UPS in this space. They are very good operators in a tough business. They've partnered with other parties, like smaller couriers, which he likes.

Very tied to online sales. Wondering if the lower guidance of Amazon.com (AMZN-Q) wouldn't be an indication of what is going to affect them.

5-10-year projection He's nervous like many others about the Amazon threat, but don't wait for the Amazon storm clouds to pass. Put capital to work on a good company long term and ignore the daily volatility. FedEx lowered volatility recently and got hammered--and that was the time to buy. Headlines about Amazon taking over shipping are unfounded, he feels; it won't happen. FedEx is trading at a reasonable valuation. He has no problem owning FedEx now.

He's owned this in the past. It's gone sideways and below its 200-day moving average. It mirrors the health of the economy and there are concerns. Beta of 1.3x of S&P. Not a stock he will accumulate moving forward deeper into the cycle.

UPS or Fedex? Fedex gave an earnings warning late last year and that hurt the value. The two stocks trade similarly. Amazon is an issue for both, who is developing their own delivery service. He wouldn't own either stock.

They had to reduce guidance. They are seeing a global slowdown particularly in Europe. A couple of years ago they invested in an express delivery company in Europe. They lower their operating profits target for this company. Another overhang on the stock is Amazon (AMZN-Q) that is trying to build their own delivery network. Stay on the sidelines.