Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX-N)

Bought, in part, on prospects of a greener world. Came down on weaker China and on the (much less green) Trump victory. Didn't execute as well in Q4, softer sales, higher capex. Copper's a good long-term bet. Trades at 15x with 19% growth.

Still likes it. USA really needs to grow its way out of this deficit.

A cyclical, and last year was poor for them all due to China's weakness. Deferral of EV adoption. Have to be patient. Story is still intact. Copper demand still rising at 2-3x what GDP is growing at, and supply is finite.

Worked for much of the year, then disappointing. He trimmed some. Thought China would do a bit better. Thought there'd be a green agenda, but now there's Trump. Earnings this morning seem weaker at first glance. Very whippy. Should be higher due to the AI buildout. Traded at a wide price to NAV, a risk if copper didn't do well or execution was poor.

You don't need to own this one forever.

If you look at the quality assets, you'd say own it. But copper's located in a lot of countries you don't want to be in. Just told by Indonesia that it wants more from mines than previously agreed. He owns HBM.

It's oversold and finding support near current levels; it seems to be bouncing. This is why he just bought a position. Old support from 2023 was $33. If shares don't hold currently, this could fall to $35. Is currently bouncing and heading to resistance at $45, or 15% higher. The risk/reward looks good. He bought one tranche and will buy more if shares move up.

If sentiment changes in China, this will move up sharply. As a cyclical, you can enter this stock at this point now. He likes FCX, which controls 8% of global copper production. Well-managed. The long-term secular story for copper is very strong--used in data centres, EVs, green energy. 

Copper supply is tight. Each 10-cent/pound rise in price means $200 million in cash flow. Expects great cash flow. Shares always fall before a quarter, so it's an opportunity now. China stimulus could be a big boost to sales.

She bought more. FCS is the poster child of China, of which she is suddenly bullish because of their stimulus news. Net cash costs are falling and it trades at 6.9x EBITDA vs. 9.2x 5-year average. 

Can't have a view on this name without having a view on copper. Emerging view that historical cyclicality of copper may be dampened going forward by secular demand of greening the grid and EVs. But the cyclicality is still there. Global GDP growth is slowing, China's economy remains anemic underlying all the "stimulus".

There will be a time to get behind this name, but not right now. FCX would be his #1 choice, TECK.B #2.

For it to jump to $55, sentiment in China needs to change first. Now is a good entry point though. Copper will go into everything, many products, so it's good long term.

Long term holding. Control and produce ~8% of world copper production. Expecting higher demand of copper with greening/electrification of economy. Would not be surprised in 2x demand of copper. Excellent balance sheet with strong revenue stream. Every 10 cent move in price of copper equates to ~400MM in cash flow. 

They're in EVs, which are really slowing, and in data centres also slowing. No, copper is not in a super-cycle. Don't touch this until it breaks $38.

Commodities have been pulverized, so it's a good time to buy,

She added more last week at $45. It now has strong support. She sold the January $50 calls. She got $3, so in under 5 months she'll get a 6.5% yield in call premium plus 11.5% upside from her $45.

We went through a bear market in commodities from 2011 - 2021. Produces copper and gold. Invested a lot of $$ in its biggest mine. Longer term, whether looking at gold or copper prices, they're going higher. Generating a lot of cash, committed to returning it to shareholders.

People look at this as a cyclical business, and it is, but when the cycle gets going it can go for a long time.