David Burrows Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold FCX-N BUY Jul 17, 2025

Bought, in part, on prospects of a greener world. Came down on weaker China and on the (much less green) Trump victory. Didn't execute as well in Q4, softer sales, higher capex. Copper's a good long-term bet. Trades at 15x with 19% growth.

Still likes it. USA really needs to grow its way out of this deficit.

China's comeback didn't happen in the past year while EV adoption has slowed, but will still happen. The copper spot price is up 25% this quarter. So, FCX will have a great quarter, given their link to that price, but the market won't anticipate that due to fear of tariffs and the impact on copper prices. Will copper be a protected mineral? Tariffs on foreign/Chinese copper? Don't know yet, but long term the secular tailwinds are intact. Copper usage will double over 7 years.

It's fallen off a cliff since tariffs. Watch FCX as an economic indicator, but would not buy this. At best, this is a short-term trade, but he's a long-term investor.

Taken a big hit. Divergence between copper prices and company's performance. Generational opportunity to buy a company like this. Secularly, we're using more and more copper for electrification. Analysts see 7-8% compound  growth rate in copper usage over next 10 years. Yield is 2.01%.

The negative is that 50% of copper is used by China. If tariffs don't get sorted out, something's gotta give. It's not easy to bring mines on quickly. Good risk/reward at current levels.

Copper stocks are very volatile. He uses stop losses on all positions, so ended up coming out of this one. Re-entered about 2 months ago. Should generate a lot of cash longer term. Significant dividend grower. Should actually benefit from tariffs.

If copper stays at $5, they should produce $9 billion in free cash flow or 15% free cash flow yield.

Q2 beat. She's still bullish on gold and copper. More cyclical than large-cap tech or utilities. Strong US operations. A bit volatile for her, but still some upside of about 8% to price target from here.

If copper stays above $5, FCX will see $9 billion in free cash flow. Shares are not cheap at 20x PE, but earnings growth is a huge 20-40%. Fundamentally, shares should be much higher.

It has a hard time breaking $45-46. It's now at the upper end of its trading range, so sell calls. Just reported nice numbers.