Stock price when the opinion was issued
It's oversold and finding support near current levels; it seems to be bouncing. This is why he just bought a position. Old support from 2023 was $33. If shares don't hold currently, this could fall to $35. Is currently bouncing and heading to resistance at $45, or 15% higher. The risk/reward looks good. He bought one tranche and will buy more if shares move up.
(Analysts’ price target is $52.24)Worked for much of the year, then disappointing. He trimmed some. Thought China would do a bit better. Thought there'd be a green agenda, but now there's Trump. Earnings this morning seem weaker at first glance. Very whippy. Should be higher due to the AI buildout. Traded at a wide price to NAV, a risk if copper didn't do well or execution was poor.
You don't need to own this one forever.
Bought, in part, on prospects of a greener world. Came down on weaker China and on the (much less green) Trump victory. Didn't execute as well in Q4, softer sales, higher capex. Copper's a good long-term bet. Trades at 15x with 19% growth.
Still likes it. USA really needs to grow its way out of this deficit.
Taken a big hit. Divergence between copper prices and company's performance. Generational opportunity to buy a company like this. Secularly, we're using more and more copper for electrification. Analysts see 7-8% compound growth rate in copper usage over next 10 years. Yield is 2.01%.
The negative is that 50% of copper is used by China. If tariffs don't get sorted out, something's gotta give. It's not easy to bring mines on quickly. Good risk/reward at current levels.
China's comeback didn't happen in the past year while EV adoption has slowed, but will still happen. The copper spot price is up 25% this quarter. So, FCX will have a great quarter, given their link to that price, but the market won't anticipate that due to fear of tariffs and the impact on copper prices. Will copper be a protected mineral? Tariffs on foreign/Chinese copper? Don't know yet, but long term the secular tailwinds are intact. Copper usage will double over 7 years.