Opinions
Gordon Reid
Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold
FCX-N
TOP PICK
Apr 09, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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The question also asked about his opinion in general on copper. He likes copper which is the most important of the metals and is therefore in great demand. The price of copper has been hit by tariffs. It is hard to predict the price by random events and the Trump effect. Freeport McMoran is in the U.S. so it has that plus.
China is the biggest buyer of copper in the world, over 50% worldwide. Long-term, copper is a winner, used widely (power generation, EVs, and elsewhere). FCX is one of the largest copper companies, the biggest in the U.S. FCX has bounced around because of Trump's tariffs. He will sit tight, but expected copper demand to double in coming years.
Very significant drop in copper price recently, due to US tariffs being clarified. Yet copper stocks were remarkably resilient.
This name has wonderful long-life assets. Trading above 50-, 150-, and 200-day MAs. Not strongest copper stock technically, but technicals are fine. Great company with history of raising dividend over time. If inflation rises tomorrow, they can put prices up. See his Top Picks.
Tariff policy is uncertain, as we could have an announcement today that gets changed next week. 200-day MA is falling, but at least the price is above that. Likes the space. Would be great if China picked up, as that would really propel the stock.
Sees signs that we could see a pickup down the road, but he's neutral for now.
To invest in this you need to be positive on copper which he is with the electrification of everything and the build out of data centres. Also global growth, especially China, could push the commodity price up. It has great assets and great jurisdictions. It also has long asset life to get through downturns in the price of copper. A catalyst in the coming quarters is its production of really high margin gold by-products. We have an elevated gold price and could see earnings estimates increased. Buy 16 Hold 6 Sell 1
(Analysts’ price target is $51.24)Tragic accident at main mine. He's still keeping 2027 estimates intact, but dropped earnings growth for 2025 and 2026 by ~27%. He likes copper, and this is going to tighten the copper market. Probably best long-term play on copper, but mines are subject to this type of incident.
Loves it longer term. Use the weakness to accumulate more. Short term (next 3 months), stock will probably dance toward $33-34. Good stewards of mines and operations over time.
Risks have increased, but we think the decline reflects a lot of uncertainty already. We would be comfortable buying into the downturn.
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Taken a big hit. Divergence between copper prices and company's performance. Generational opportunity to buy a company like this. Secularly, we're using more and more copper for electrification. Analysts see 7-8% compound growth rate in copper usage over next 10 years. Yield is 2.01%.
(Analysts’ price target is $46.78)The negative is that 50% of copper is used by China. If tariffs don't get sorted out, something's gotta give. It's not easy to bring mines on quickly. Good risk/reward at current levels.