Markets. It hard to guess if equities have found their bottom. They have gone into a Friday finishing in the red so you could fear next week. He has been observing a widening of credit spreads. Earnings growth will be very critical to the businesses you want to focus on. The market has been pricing in 10 times earnings year over year. A lot of it has been acquisition driven. We will feel the effect of commodities impacting thing negatively in some cases and positively in others. Some retailers should benefit. Apparel guys have been trading at 25 times earnings for a couple of years. In Europe he is looking at credit spreads coming into banks. The Canadian banks vs. European banks show European banks have room to grow. In emerging markets the banks don’t have room to grow.
Markets. He expects more volatility because this season is normally tough on the markets and then the Fed not raising rates in September has added another unknown to this market. European inflation numbers are at or below zero and is there going to be more QE. Commodity companies have had a difficult time. There are a lot of little things going on that create a lot of uncertainty. This is seasonally a tough time. The market should try to test the lows of August. If you get through this volatility you should bounce off there afterwards. Stocks aren’t expensive and dividend rates are high. With this pullback you can look at names that were too expensive previously.
Markets. Over the span of his career, things are back to normal. The last few years have been a bit too linear. That is not how markets normally work. Nobody likes a bumpy ride, but in markets like this you want to get something for something. You want to outperform and then see markets get back into a healthy state. He made a call in the spring to move away from industrials with more FX exposure and that helped quite a bit. Clients want to be up, but you have to realize that the markets give you a premium for the risks you take. The US is the place to be for a portion of his clients’ assets.
Markets. In May he said to go in a big part to cash. He looks at longer term leading indicators. ‘Dumb’ money in March was buying and smart money was selling at that time. The VIX was quite low. These leading indicators said he should get out. Now we are seeing these same indicators, like VIX and market breath, reaching extremes. Also, he saw the ‘smart’ and ‘dumb money ratio reverse. Yesterday he got a special indicator. It was a Japanese candle. He needs two more days (today was one) to the upside to prove that it was a bottom on this correction.
Markets. We are in a long term secular bull market. Money is slowly moving its way back in after being out for 13 years. There have been 6 or 7 significant correction during this bull market. They reset and then leadership resumes and markets work their way higher. He makes moves to protect his portfolios though corrections. He feels we are a long way through this correction. As more stocks start to perform better technically, things will start to quickly improve. It looks as if we are going to re-test or even cut below the recent lows. Healthcare has really taken it on the chin recently so he has been stopped out of a lot. Consumer discretionary is a beneficiary of low energy prices. Financials also have benefited, especially US financials. If we had a crisis on our hands this is not how they would perform.
Biotechs have been creamed over the last couple of days. As a sell off picks up steam, investors look for anything they can take profits in, so biotechs have been hit hard. Investors should be looking hard at the big names in this sector. This group will likely have a very good turn as markets start to improve. He likes GILD-Q.
Markets. This is a correction within a bull market. A 10% decline in 4 days only happened 9 times in history and after that it re-tests the lows. These are interesting times. It might be worth starting to dip your toes. There are a lot of risks in the market right now, however. Going into the summer he positioned for high risk. There is a lot of nervousness in the markets. He started picking away the last few days. The TSX got into the buy zone. Use stop losses. S&P earnings will likely be flat for the year. CXR-T was weak after the deal. The money from the new issue is in the bank. He thinks they can earn $6 a share conservatively so it is undervalued at these levels. He does not think the sell off is warranted.
Markets. Chinese profit numbers show an 8.8% drop. It is not surprising to see it unwinding the way it is. The Spanish are going to use the referendum to put together a proposal to separate from the EU. It is one of the things that complicate a recovery in Europe. The EWP-N ETF shows downside even after you take out currency fluctuations. There potentially could be some more downside.
Dividend ETFs. Sometimes you put money into a boring dividend fund and just keep dripping. Over time it really builds wealth.