We were lucky that Kerry did not win the election. He would have had to face a couple of issues. 1st it would require more fiscal responsibility and 2nd it would have been a hung Congress, i.e., himself versus a Republican Congress. This would have made it difficult to get a lot of legislation through. Clinton was in the same situation and it worked out very well because they couldn’t get a lot of spending bills passed and fundamentally, the US kind of cleaned up its act, got into a surplus and the US$ went up and good things happened. The market would not have wanted that this time as it would have meant some kind of fiscal discipline to bear and frankly the US has been living off the fat of rather profligate fiscal spending. To have been pulled up short would have been a problem for the stock market and the US consumer. Problems that go with all the fiscal irresponsibility remain with us in spades. This creates prolonged downward pressure on the US$ for at least the next couple of years which is not good. Makes me a little more bullish on gold, but certainly reinforces my bullishness on oil as OPEC will not put up with continuing erosion in its own US reserves and will counter this with upwards pressure on the price of oil.
The Canadian $ is going to go to par. Arrived at through following the analysis of debt to GDP. John Manley, 2 years ago, and now Ralph Goodale see Debt to GDP falling to about 20%. If you look back to about 1973, the CDn$ was around par, GDP was around 20%. He also says the Canadian $ should no longer exist. In the next 5 to 8 years we have to get rid of this Canadian dollar, we’ve got to join with a bigger currency block ala the United States, because having one currency with 35 million people and really one hedge fund can blow this thing out of the way, our Canadian businesses are taking so much risk now with this dollar and its volatility, it just can’t happen.
Sees limited downside. The stock is waiting for the deal to happen. If it happens, feels the transaction will be in the $24.50/25 range. If it doesn't happen, it's an incredibly cheap stock.
One of the most conservative and stable income trusts you can get. As close to a bond as you can get. Dropped when fears of interest rate increases started. Made a couple of accretive acquisitions.