A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
We were lucky that Kerry did not win the election. He would have had to face a couple of issues. 1st it would require more fiscal responsibility and 2nd it would have been a hung Congress, i.e., himself versus a Republican Congress. This would have made it difficult to get a lot of legislation through. Clinton was in the same situation and it worked out very well because they couldn’t get a lot of spending bills passed and fundamentally, the US kind of cleaned up its act, got into a surplus and the US$ went up and good things happened. The market would not have wanted that this time as it would have meant some kind of fiscal discipline to bear and frankly the US has been living off the fat of rather profligate fiscal spending. To have been pulled up short would have been a problem for the stock market and the US consumer. Problems that go with all the fiscal irresponsibility remain with us in spades. This creates prolonged downward pressure on the US$ for at least the next couple of years which is not good. Makes me a little more bullish on gold, but certainly reinforces my bullishness on oil as OPEC will not put up with continuing erosion in its own US reserves and will counter this with upwards pressure on the price of oil.
BUY
Merger with Coors will probably be delayed until early 2005. Strategically, the merger is a good idea.
BUY
The Canadian $ is going to go to par. Arrived at through following the analysis of debt to GDP. John Manley, 2 years ago, and now Ralph Goodale see Debt to GDP falling to about 20%. If you look back to about 1973, the CDn$ was around par, GDP was around 20%. He also says the Canadian $ should no longer exist. In the next 5 to 8 years we have to get rid of this Canadian dollar, we’ve got to join with a bigger currency block ala the United States, because having one currency with 35 million people and really one hedge fund can blow this thing out of the way, our Canadian businesses are taking so much risk now with this dollar and its volatility, it just can’t happen.
SELL
Have not run their business that well. Losing market share. The deal with Coors is not going to solve a lot of problems. A low to no growth business.
TOP PICK
Sees limited downside. The stock is waiting for the deal to happen. If it happens, feels the transaction will be in the $24.50/25 range. If it doesn't happen, it's an incredibly cheap stock.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
A good company. Buy under $7. Had some problems with wet weather in the 3rd quarter, so production has been a little weak.
BUY
85% is gas of which more sour gas which is more expensive to process. 55/60% payout ratio.
TOP PICK
Had a nice correction some time ago and have formed a base. There will be a consumer boom. Put a stop/loss at $31.
BUY
One of the most conservative and stable income trusts you can get. As close to a bond as you can get. Dropped when fears of interest rate increases started. Made a couple of accretive acquisitions.
BUY
A natural gas coal-bed methane play. Have finally gotten their acquisition together, so is looking interesting.
DON'T BUY
Coming under increased currency pressures. Expect a distribution cut down the road.
BUY
Positive on the markets they are in, particularily copper. Believes they are in play and will get taken out.
TOP PICK
Likes it more because of the possibility of what's happening. Doesn't see a lot of downside. Could be a takeover down the road.
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