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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Gold conspiracy? - US has not had an audit of its gold reserves since the 1950’s. IMF has supported accounting rules that have allowed central banks to double count, so they are complicit in the scheme to keep gold prices down.
COMMENT
Gold conspiracy? - Doesn’t believe in a Gold conspiracy and there is no way to prove that gold price is being manipulated. Even if it was, and he assumed manipulation, that still gives him no predictive capabilities.
COMMENT
Gold conspiracy? - Not a believer in a Gold conspiracy and there is no evidence that gold is being manipulated. This thinking does not help you to invest.
COMMENT
Zinc: - In the last 12 months, base metal prices ran substantially, especially zinc. Inventories are historically low and prices in all these commodities are very expensive. Believes institutional money has come into the market looking for a hedge against devaluation of the US$.
COMMENT
Gold Investing: - No one is going to get rich investing in gold in the next 5 years. Gold, base metals, housing, commodities, Euro and stocks have all run up. Contra-cyclical markets are now running pro-cyclical. At the late stages of a credit cycle, everything is moving with liquidity. As liquidity expands, everything rises. As it contracts, everything falls. This is what is starting to happen.
COMMENT
Deflation: - Deflation will bring bullion down. Inflation that has occurred in the last 7 years was not currency inflation, but credit inflation. Fed's main goal was not to print Federal reserve notes; it was fostering expansion of credit. Difference is that credit can be extinguished much faster than the Fed is able to print currency. When the $ denominated value of debt declines on a currency inflation, that is deflation.
COMMENT
Deflation: - Doesn't agree that deflation will bring bullion down. First of all, deflation is a low probability event.
COMMENT
Energy sector: -There is a lot of value in the energy sector, but the market doesn't care right now and he thinks that will continue. There will be a magnificent buying opportunity coming, but it is not today.
COMMENT
Income trusts: - Too early. The problem with the trusts is that too many of them are junior stocks. In recessions and down markets, junior stocks get ravaged.
COMMENT
US large cap for safety: - A frightening idea. A lot of the US large cap companies have a tremendous amount of downside, especially the financial sector.
COMMENT
Energy sector: -There is absolutely value in this sector. There will be many more mergers/acquisitions taking place, particularly from the trust side.
COMMENT
Income trusts: - Likes to buy these when they are undervalued. Has a number of these. Likes to see 35/40% upside available, not including distributions.
COMMENT
Oil Sands: - Owns nothing in the oil sands. Prefers companies that have cash flow and earnings. In terms of the feeding frenzy to get into the tar sands, he’s not there.
COMMENT
US Recession: - Doesn’t see a recession, only a slowdown. Lower gasoline prices is helping the consumer. A chicken little scenario.
COMMENT
Financials: - Has no bank stocks or Canadian insurance companies. However, US life companies are dirt-cheap. He is able to buy them well below book and break-up value.
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