Canadian Banks: - Financial industry is in a great deal of turmoil. Subprimes, etc. take time to work through the system. It could be a year or longer. For longer-term holders, the dividends will be a very generous return. Most of the banks have a good capital base that the dividends should not be in jeopardy.
Silver: - Will trend higher over time like gold. The biggest use for silver is in its industrial applications. Most of the silver mined has been used up by industry. There isn't a big above ground stock that can be drawn on. For 16 years the mining industry has produced much less silver than what is being used. There is a huge deficit. The silver bullion held by governments is now all gone. There will come a time when there is no silver left above ground. And pullback in price will only be temporary.
Junior Golds: - Have absolutely lagged the seniors and the gold price. This is a usual trend. Seniors start to move first and then it trickles down to intermediates and then to juniors. This time around, it is even more pronounced. Investors in North America are scared silly and have become risk adverse. This is one of the greatest buying opportunities out there.
Market Weighting: - He has 15% to precious metals, 17%-18% energy, 7%-8% iron and steel and 15% agriculture. There are a lot of sectors that are not going to make it, so you have to be selective.
Banking Sector: - Has no Canadian banks and only one small holding of a US bank. You have to watch for the spread in corporate debt of treasury bonds in the US or Canada bonds in Canada. Spreads have continued to widen and investors are looking for an even larger premium to get paid to take the risk to put on the debt. When spreads are widening the market is telling you there are still increasing risks going forward.
Golds: - Likes golds and has taken a basket approach using 5 or 6 stocks. Some of these include Kinross (K-T), Goldcorp (G-T) and Yamana (YRI-T) as well as Barrick (ABX-T).
Precious metals: - His favourite commodities. He is very bullish on gold (his target is $1250) and silver (up to $30). He owns streetTracks Gold (GLD-N) and iShares Silver (SLV-A). A more conservative way to play. Scorpio Mining (SPM-T) is his only stock play in this area.
Gold: - He thinks it goes through $1000. Looking for lower rates in the US and problems in the economy for the next few months, and therefore gold will have the momentum to go through $1000. There are a whole bunch of juniors that haven't moved and he could see some acquisitions.
Small-Cap Financials: - Pretty cautious on the financial station in general as he thinks there will be more negative news over the next several quarters. There is no real rush to move into this area.
Gold: - He is using an average of $800 an ounce when looking at equities to justify some of the gold projects. A higher price based on US$ and weakness is more of a short-term issue. He tends to focus on more of the fundamentals.
Oil Sands: - There has been a lot of volatility, primarily with respect to Alberta's royalty regime program. Companies are negotiating with Alberta. There is now certainty so we know where we are going. There are a number of short-term challenges that will increase the cost, but it is a very strategic resource on a global point of view. Likes Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN-T) and CNQ (CNQ-T) with their Horizon project
Copper: - Longer term the futures market suggests 4 years out you could still see $3. Realistically, you have to price out the projects at about $1.50 or $1.60 range (US$) per pound over the next 5 to 10 years.
Natural Gas: - You have to expect volatile pricing. Currently there is a much tighter supply/demand situation driving the prices up. Somewhat of a seasonal rally we are experiencing now. Wouldn't be surprised to see prices backing off next month. Given fundamentals, he is a little concerned and is quite cautious over the next 6 to 9 months. There will probably be good buying opportunities going into the fall.