Uranium - A lot of uranium stocks look identical. Most of them are in a growth channel, and are currently at the top of it. Feels the bottom will slowly shrink and the stock will go sideways for a while and then walk back into the lower growth channel. Wouldn't be overweight in this. Use the Uranium Participation (U-T) as a guide. When it walks back into the trend line, then you could buy.
Banks - Every institution wants to own a bank and will be reluctant to sell their bank stocks unless they get really nervous. The Financial Services Group long-term chart shows the trend is still up. However, we are at the top of a growth channel indicating we are extended on this group. He does see some negative convergence, which he interprets as a correction down to the lower trend line.
Longer term, energy is going to be in demand. There is severe depletion in the Canadian oil patch. Globally there are some areas of promising production, but overall demand is going up. Longer-term energy is a good place to be and if there is a cold snap, you are going to see hedge funds and day traders jumping in and you will see some spikes along the way. Right now is a good point to be biting your time and identifying the stocks you think are going to be attractive.
Income trusts is a dying asset class. Outside of real estate, it is eventually going to disappear, but that doesn't mean you can't find some opportunities in the structures that are left behind. They will continue to be priced on their ability to pay distributions on a discounted cash flow approach.
Diamonds: - The key to a lot of diamond exploration is to make sure there is enough cash for the exploration. You want to know the quality of the diamonds and the length of the pipe, what the exploration budget looks like. The real key is management and their experience.
Growth of “stateism” into the private energy enterprise sector is ominous for supplies of oil/gas outside North America. They will increasingly be looking to Canada, particularly the tar sands
Gold: - He deals in gold bullion and just recently sold his holdings. He is bearish on gold. The chart shows a peak around $750 and then there’s a series of zigzags which don’t look encouraging. Does own some gold stocks.
Uranium: - Investment funds bought up uranium in the spot market and the influx of the money significantly distorted uranium prices. He sold most of his uranium stocks. Cigar Lake mine represented 11%-12% of worldwide demand and the flood represented a major problem for the uranium industry. Outlook for the price of uranium is very positive now.
Management: - Looks on his portfolio as a portfolio of management teams, not stocks. Management is the single most important aspect when buying small, illiquid and highly volatile stocks. 3 things are needed, 1) Integrity. They have to manage in the best interest of shareholders, not management 2) Technically competent 3) Financially competent.
Uranium commodity will remain very strong. The supply/demand is very much favouring the commodity. Not a lot of capacity coming on for the next 3 years.