BMO EQUAL WEIGHT BANKS INDEX ETF (ZEB.TO)

There are various ETF’s in the banking sector, and this one is fine, particularly if you are a smaller investor, because you get the diversification.

This whole new mortgage rules coming down has obviously caused a lot of consternation, and there has already been a bit of follow up from it. No matter what happens with all these mortgage rules, we know that Canadian banks are probably going to have a slowing mortgage business. They are also going to be seeing more intense capital requirements to back up some of the mortgages. Also, if interest rates start to rise that will become a good thing.

The technical rule for him is that you cannot have a rising market without the leadership or participation from the financial sector, so he likes the banks. The banks have weathered well and have done well through all the past crises, and he thinks they can manage this one.

Canadian Banks. They have been great long term investments, but dropped 50% in the financial crisis. The growth of earnings during the leverage buildup over the last 30 years is now behind us so growth in banks is behind us. He likes this ETF to play banks. There are no risks except market risks. He does not see growth in banks, however, so wait and buy bank lower in the near future. The demographics and growth from India are likely to be fantastic and it will be the new China. More allocation to India is called for, but they are 1% of the world so 5% is really overweighted. 25% weighting in Canadian banks is only called for if it is not registered and you get the dividend tax credit.

One, several, or an ETF in Canadian Banks? If the amount is under $20,000, you are probably better off with an ETF such as BMO’s Equal Weight Bank ETF (ZEB-T). There are really no wrong answers on this.

Banks have come off quite a bit now. He would normally be doing the ZWB, but he likes the lift that he thinks he can get going down the road this year. He particularly likes Royal (RY-T) and TD (TD-T) for US$ exposure. This gives you about 4% yield.

Bank stocks in Canada have very distinctive seasonality. They are different than seasonality for US banks. Seasonality runs from September through until the end of November when they report their 4^th quarter results. Then they don’t do much until around the end of February, when they again go into a period of seasonal strength. That usually lasts until about May. Chart shows signs of bottoming, but we are not at the end of February yet. When you see them bottoming, that will be a sign to play the next seasonal trade.

(A Top Pick Oct 20/15. Down 5.39%.) Canadian banks tend to do well from Oct 10 until the end of December. Banks can fade away once they start coming out with their earnings. He exited his position before the banks came out with their earnings.

ZEB-T Vs. ZWB-T. He does not like the growth in earnings outlook for Canadian banks over 3-5 years. Prefers ZWB-T because of the covered call overlay. If the banks went down 20% for some reason then he would look at ZEB-T again.

(Top Pick Sep 4/15, Up 7.22%) The period of seasonal strength ends this week in the banks. Banks are starting to cut back and possible announce write offs.

(A Top Pick Sept 4/15. Up 6.66%.) This holds all the major banks in Canada. It is into its seasonal strength at around the end of August, and expectedly continues to move higher through to the end of November. At that point in time, you want to take some real good profits.

Canadian Banks have been badly beaten up because a) everybody expects the house prices to collapse, b) oil prices are going to have an impact at some point and c) US hedge funds are Short Selling banks. Recently there have been some positive performances for the banks. We are now in the seasonal period for banks and they are showing outperformance signs. He is expecting that to continue on.

A basket of US or Cdn bank stocks for a TFSA account for an 88-year-old? You could buy BMO Equal Weight Bank ETF (ZEB-T). This is the easiest way to get a basket of stocks. Yield on the Canadian banks is better than 4%.

The 6 big banks over the long term are one of the best areas to go into. He likes equal weight and likes CEW-T because of the insurance companies but this one is good. TD-T, BNS-T and RY-T are his favourites if you don’t like an ETF.

Seasonality for bank stocks is from the end of August right through until November. Every year the CEOs report their 4^th quarter results around the 4^th week of November. They love to give you good news at that period of time. Technically it is showing positive signs. It is starting to outperform the market, trading above its 20 day moving average and starting to show signs of bottoming.