Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)

Top 2 or 3 ETFs until 2022. He likes SMH-N - semiconductors. XLF-N still has upside as the financials have underperformed. Canadian banks stick out as well. They are sitting on a whack of cash and have not been able to raise dividends. They will probably take some loan loss provisions back into earnings soon.

Spread curves are flattening, which he interprets as a cautionary signal. He would pay attention to the recent consolidation as another sign of caution. The provisions for credit losses are the lowest he has seen – be careful.

(A Top Pick February 22/18 Down 2%) He sold it in early April when the seasonal trend peaked. Rising interest rates has not been benefitting the financial sector as would normally be the case – measured as under-performing the broad market index. He feels the narrative is changing. Technically it does not look good to him. He would not be here now.

XLY-US or XLF-US? January saw massive gains in the U.S., which was too much, too soon. So, he pulled back and held a lot of cash. Then, in early-Feb he bought both ETFs. He recommends buying both right now.

HFU or XLF? A double-leveraged ETF (HFU) carries more risk that isn't present in a single-leveraged one. Be careful with these. Not for long-term investors. Generally. If long-term, stick with a plain vanilla ETF instead of the double-leverage one.

(A Top Pick Sept. 25/17, Up 17%) There are three drivers of U.S. banks. One is de-leveraging is done with corporations and household both in great shape. Two, U.S. bank de-regulation and, three, are interest rates are rising. All are tailwinds for the U.S. economy.

US Banks primarily. The banks take your money in and lend it out at a higher rate. Rising 10-year rates help that. They have a seasonal period until mid-April.

This one has all the big U.S. banks. About 49% U.S Banks, 30% insurance companies, also, and about 10% Berkshire. It really represents the heavyweight in the U.S. financial sectors and he thinks they are going to do very well. Obviously not just because of the tax cuts, but because of Dodd-Frank and also with increasing interest rates they are going to get better net interest margins. Lots of reasons to like the U.S. banks.

This has to do with the US tax deregulation and the potential for a higher interest rate spread.

The pillars of Trump’s platform had infrastructure, lower taxes and reduced regulations. It is pretty clear that infrastructure and lower taxes is going to be, if ever, some time in the future. However, reduced regulations is something that can be done. They said that regulations don’t necessarily have to change the laws, they just have to reinterpret existing laws. Trump’s overall impact on the global economy won’t be as large as people had thought, but his sectorial impact will be massive. Banks are incredibly under owned and under loved, and extremely oversold.