Whole Foods Market Inc.WFMBUYMay 16, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
They came into the market years ago and really took on the whole idea of organic and natural foods, but competition in the regular food stores with organic foods are affecting their earnings. This is showing up in the stock price. The stock has been falling since last February. The moving averages have all been falling. Competition is too intense.
The US consumer is feeling richer now but ironically, they are not spending, they are saving. An upgrade in food tends to be one of the outcomes, so this company really hits that market. It is expensive. They have a very good concept and he has yet to see a viable competitor for them. A decent holding for the space.
This company was brilliant and they took an arbitrage opportunity of being 1st with healthy/organic high-quality food. Everybody has now caught up. Grocery stores trade at 6 to 7 times enterprise value to EBITDA. This one is trading at 11 so there is still 30%-40% more downside or the other companies catch up. Valuation is very expensive.
Likes Whole Foods. Paying 30x PE which is a bit high, but you are paying the premium because you are paying for a brand name. They are going to be increasing their dividends in the futures and possibly the buybacks as well. Long term trend is to natural foods. They will still be looking for the dense neighborhoods, and are starting to bring in lower priced items in order to reach a broader market.
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