Whitecap ResourcesWCP.TOTOP PICKDec 10, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 13, 2026. Market Open.
It is a mid-cap oil stock and their largest holding. It is one of the most misunderstood companies and is cheap without reason. Management has done an awesome job in its operations and it has beaten expectations in many quarters. It has well over 2 decades of very high quality inventory. US companies are eyeing Canadian companies Whitecap has 5.3 times cash flow and he sees a 40 % upside. Pays a dividend.
27% gas, the rest is oil. Now the 5th largest oil producer in Canada. Market cap of $20B. Extremely well run. Lots of contiguous land, long reserve life. Probably one of the strongest takeout candidates. Trades ~5x cashflow, with considerable upside.
With ARX being taken out, more institutions will be interested. Yield is 4.6%.
The oil floor has risen since the US-Iran war, but alot of supply will come in soon. The oil price will test $70. Sanctions lifted, Iran can sell at market prices. Canadian producers are well-positioned. The CAD is at 70 cents, which means C$90 a barrel (based on US$70 barrels). He likes WCP; they've consolidated into a sizable-enough player.
All-time high today. Meaningfully mispriced. Top assets in Montney and Duvernay. Sell your ARX right now and buy this. Continues to beat quarter after quarter after quarter. CEO has the most aggressive insider buying of any company he follows in Canada.
Potential takeover (but, he really hopes, not anytime soon). Yield is 4.48%.
Is a huge fan of CNQ, but be cautious in energy now. If you own energy, sit tight and hold your gains. Valuations have risen a lot, though may not persist for long. He prefers CNQ. Is a strong compounder and return cash flow to shareholders while they reduce debt. He doesn't know where the price of oil is going.
With excellent VRN merger, market cap is now suddenly relevant to large institutions. Bullish on oil for second half of next year, but range-bound till then. This makes it important to choose oil names that will re-rate for a variety of reasons without needing oil price to go up.
(Analysts’ price target is $13.59)At discount to peers. At least 25 years of stay-flat inventory. Significant increase investor attention from US. Decline in US shale requires them to go to less mature areas such as the Montney and Duvernay (both of where WCP has exposure). Trades at only 5% forward cashflow at $60 oil. He believes fair multiple is 7x, which translates to $19 a share.
If you dare to dream of not-impossible $70 oil, that's a $23 share price. Yield is 6.28%.