Opinions Mason Granger
Whitecap ResourcesWCP.TOTOP PICKMar 17, 2016
Mason GrangerStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 13, 2026. Market Open.
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It is a mid-cap oil stock and their largest holding. It is one of the most misunderstood companies and is cheap without reason. Management has done an awesome job in its operations and it has beaten expectations in many quarters. It has well over 2 decades of very high quality inventory. US companies are eyeing Canadian companies Whitecap has 5.3 times cash flow and he sees a 40 % upside. Pays a dividend.
Eric Nuttall
27% gas, the rest is oil. Now the 5th largest oil producer in Canada. Market cap of $20B. Extremely well run. Lots of contiguous land, long reserve life. Probably one of the strongest takeout candidates. Trades ~5x cashflow, with considerable upside.
With ARX being taken out, more institutions will be interested. Yield is 4.6%.
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Premium contentWCP boils down whether you expect the US-Iran war will continue or end soon. Unfortunately, we expect it to drag on, given the pattern of ceasefire-fighting-ceasefire. The fact is Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and the flow of crude oil. Trump can do little to change that except threaten. Even if the war completely stopped in August, sweeping the strait of mines could take six month and returning to normal shipping volumes could take 18 months or more. All this puts oil companies in the driver's seat as crude oil prices will not return to sub-$60, pre-war levels and likely will fall no lower than $70, as we saw a month ago.
He has owned a lot of this. They bought a company last year and integrated very well. The outlook remains solid. Then, the Iran War spiked energy prices. He's been trimming WCP at $16-19. Buy at $11-12. He expects price targets to decline.
Bruce MurrayThe oil floor has risen since the US-Iran war, but alot of supply will come in soon. The oil price will test $70. Sanctions lifted, Iran can sell at market prices. Canadian producers are well-positioned. The CAD is at 70 cents, which means C$90 a barrel (based on US$70 barrels). He likes WCP; they've consolidated into a sizable-enough player.
Loves the story. Lightened up on potential Iran deal. But on weakness (~$14-14.50), he'd be inclined to come back in. VRN acquisition was extremely timely. Good operators. One of Canada's premier oil plays. Likes management.
John ZechnerAll-time high today. Meaningfully mispriced. Top assets in Montney and Duvernay. Sell your ARX right now and buy this. Continues to beat quarter after quarter after quarter. CEO has the most aggressive insider buying of any company he follows in Canada.
Potential takeover (but, he really hopes, not anytime soon). Yield is 4.48%.
Eric Nuttall
Is a huge fan of CNQ, but be cautious in energy now. If you own energy, sit tight and hold your gains. Valuations have risen a lot, though may not persist for long. He prefers CNQ. Is a strong compounder and return cash flow to shareholders while they reduce debt. He doesn't know where the price of oil is going.
Fine on return of capital. Wants it to reduce yield to shareholders and increase sustaining capital investments and new project investments. If you’re underweight energy, you need to get long. He’s very bullish on Canadian oils, but he loved them better at $60 than he does at $100.
Rick Rule
They spent the 1st couple of years building out an asset base, in preparation of converting to a dividend paying model. This company stands out as the one being the most successful in terms of executing that type of plan. Did a bit of financing of $95 million recently, and picked up an extra 15% working interest in the Boundary Lake asset, taking them from 75% to 90%. Has a 5% decline rate, so the sustaining capital to keep that production up is less because of that. Dividend yield of 5.25%.