Stock price when the opinion was issued
He'd skew toward ARX, as it's the best-run intermediate O&G company in Canada. On most fundamental metrics, WCP is cheaper. It depends on your own investing style. He's often willing to pay up for management that he considers superior. In a 5-10 year timeframe, you can't go wrong with either.
Harder and harder to start a new company, so consolidation makes sense. He owns CNQ, because if the market moves it'll move that name first. Anyone who wants to own WCP, owns it already. And there's no immediate catalyst to the industry. Be patient, collect the dividend, and know that it will be higher later.
Trapped in no-man's land, just like many of the other oil stocks. In a swing-trading range; buy near the bottom, sell at the top. If there's a breakout and it seems as though it's staying, he'll actually add more. But if it starts to roll over, he sells. Might be a bit more upside, but don't pile in at this point because it's so close.
We'll have to see what the merged company looks like on the other side. No strong opinion on it. Looking at it from an options perspective, companies going into deals like this can see their option premium disappear.
If you don't own it, you can look to buy it ~$10 out to October, and sell that $10 put cash-covered (so 54 cents below where it's trading now). This lets you collect about 20 cents. You'll generate 2% over 2 months if the stock stays here or goes higher, and if the stock goes down you'll be buying it.
Long-term story for Western Canada is positive. Finally have infrastructure being built. Government and population seem to be more behind the sector. Short-term outlook is pretty cloudy, especially for oil and particularly as we head into the slower demand period of fall.
Will take a while to digest VRN merger. Weakness for next 3-9 months. Over time, you'll do fine. Can hold for the dividend. For new $$, wait for a better entry point.
See his Top Picks.
It has gone sideways and is dependent on oil and gas prices. It is focused on longer life strong free cash flow assets. Has strong management and good insider holdings. Monitor the high payout ratio and integration risks. There is a possible 28% upside and the potential for an attractive short term rally.
They spent the 1st couple of years building out an asset base, in preparation of converting to a dividend paying model. This company stands out as the one being the most successful in terms of executing that type of plan. Did a bit of financing of $95 million recently, and picked up an extra 15% working interest in the Boundary Lake asset, taking them from 75% to 90%. Has a 5% decline rate, so the sustaining capital to keep that production up is less because of that. Dividend yield of 5.25%.