Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX.TO) Buy, Sell or…

Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX.TO)

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TOP PICK

Likes the pharmaceutical business. Has been bashed a lot. New management made a very tough decision to get rid of all their US sales force. Changing their corporate governance a lot. Market was evaluating their pipeline and undervaluing it. Trading at 10 X earnings. Believes it's moving back to its roots as a specialty pharmaceutical company.

DON'T BUY

Looks like one of their drugs has been approved. Backlog is fairly weak. It's become a one-story stock. Their drug Welbutrin is a great drug, but it makes up 50% of their profit. It'll only be another year or two that they'll have an exclusive on that drug.

DON'T BUY

Pharmaceuticals around the world have not had a good time of it because of pricing pressures, government pressures, product recalls, etc. This company is a 2nd/3rd tier player which has had some questionable dealings.

BUY

Came in with huge earnings revisions. Feels the stock is worth about $36. Should go higher and would buy.

DON'T BUY

The big issue is that they have done a major restructuring, particularily in the US. They still lack growth products. They need to bring on some new drugs that are going to grow.

DON'T BUY

History says you should always be concerned about an FCC investigation partcularily on accounting. Restructuring, but they don't have much of a pipeline on drugs. Their key drug Wellbutrin is getting genericized soon.

TOP PICK

Likes it because 1) no one is talking about it any more 2) have changed management 3) good technology. Have a big US sales force which they'll have to cut in half and return to their roots as a specialty pharmaceutical company. Earnings have stabilized. At a cheap level, although it could fall a lirttle further. (Low was $16.90)

HOLD

Fundamentally the stock looks cheap. There are some issues with competitive drugs coming on the market. There will be upside in time.

TOP PICK

Had a change of management. Market not taking into account a zero value for their pipeline. Will have to restructure some of their US sales franchises which will really help the bottom line. At about 10 X earnings.

DON'T BUY

Accounting is not that trustworthy. The drug delivery technology they have is of some value, but it is difficult to assess the intrinsic value.

DON'T BUY

Reported earlier this week and results were better then expected. Has reservations about the company. If you really want it, wait and watch.

DON'T BUY

Long term outlook is not good. Wellbutrin is going to face major competition. However, it is a very cheap valuation and if they cut their US sales force, they will be able to generate $1.50 in earnings. Some investors are using it as a trading stock, but he is not comfortable with it.

DON'T BUY

Pipeline is weak. Bakance sheet is fairly stretched. Earnings estimates continue to come down.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 1/04 with a Stop/Loss. Up 16%.) Recommends this to their clients. The kind of a stock where you could be really surprised. Thinks all the bad ones are past. A good one could happen if they line up their drug for the slow release technology.

DON'T BUY

Get out, stay out and don't come back in. Starting base building and don't know how long this will take. We're in a bull market and this stock has had no upside.

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Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX.TO)