Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX.TO) Buy, Sell or…

Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX.TO)

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BUY ON WEAKNESS

Has pretty well lived through all the serious threats to its ongoingness as a business. Great drug technology and they now have a nice new slow release drug that will be a big seller. Buy on any weakness.

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WEAK BUY

An interesting play. Came unglued over the last number of years, but has had a technical breakout. Finally broke through the 200 day moving average and have seen a higher high. Expect it to go higher. Would like to see it drop a bit at a test gap before buying, around the $24/25 area.

BUY

Feels his model price is about 40% higher than the current price. Dirt cheap. New management is getting credibility. They have announced a new drug.

DON'T BUY

Doesn't trust their corporate governance. Thinks there stock is blown up right now.

TOP PICK

Have some terrific medical technology. Just got FDA approval for its Tremadol painkiller. Probably has easy potential to reach $32, but wouldn't be surprised if it went much higher.

DON'T BUY

Its glory days are 2 years behind it now. Will take a while for it to go back. Fully valued.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 9/05. Up 7%.) Likes this one. Dirt cheap.

BUY

They've restructured and got rid of their US sales force which was a very important decision. Have made a lot of effort to change their corporate financing. The issue is that they have one drug which is a large percentage of their overall revenue. Very cheap and throws off lots of free cash and trades at $1.75/1.85 on earnings.

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BUY

This one has probably bottomed. Has a lot of support at around $16/17.

DON'T BUY

Sold it when it started missing on its earnings estimates. Have an interesting technology. Has been flat over the last year. Getting rid of their US sales force. Will look at it again when it's had a couple of years of successful numbers.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jun 9/05. Up 4%.) Has a model price of $40 for some time and the stock is going up. There is value here. The stock gets no respect. Looking at earnings estimates, going out in '05 and '06, it's a cheap stock.

DON'T BUY

Probably fairly valued. There is some question about the speed of developing new drugs. Accounting issues are now OK.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 28/05. Up 12.5%.) Likes that they have and are restructuring. Now that they have made some of the hard decisions, you have to wait for those things to come to fruition as you want to see some of the cost savings for the company. Also they want to grow their pipeline and the question is how do they do it. Still likes it.

BUY

Have joint ventured a Nevada project with Placer Dome (PDG-T). Expect to see drilling this year. Very conceptual, very early stage, very risky but a very good project.

TOP PICK

This stock just needs a little catalyst to get it going. Have had earnings revisions upwards. Has a model price of $36.85 on expected earnings of $2 a share. SEC is looking at their improper accounting, but they're current on their filing.

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Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX.TO)