Stockchase Opinions

Mike Lyons CA, CFA Valero Energy Corp VLO-N COMMENT Feb 24, 2011

Refining is an ugly business. Not an industry of secular growth but one of cyclical margin swings. Hard to make money at it and plants are hard to run. Sector has just had a bounce off a significant rally. Has a fair amount of debt. If dynamics for the sector continue positive for a little while, they will be more of a beneficiary than the un-levered players. (He just sold a refiner, Frontier Oil (FTO-N).)
$26.800

Stock price when the opinion was issued

integrated oils
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HOLD
They just reported this morning and they were strong. They benefit from increased crude demand from gasoline as public transportation is out of demand. They have one of the best refinery complexes. He has held it before. He thinks it is a well run company but is a bet on crude and gasoline.
BUY
Inflation-protection trades: energy (and materials). Both cyclical sectors are positively correlated to inflation. She also likes Martin Marietta given its heavy business in residential and non-res construction and a tailwind from Dems and Republicans to fix bridges and ports during supply-chain issues. Financials: JPM she likes, though they had a disappointing recent earnings, they do have a multi-faceted business. For more cyclicals, consider EM, namely IEMG.
SELL ON STRENGTH
At the core to reap the benefits of huge demand going forward. Stock has doubled since October 2020. The market is buying a lot of April 100 calls with the stock at $90. He intends to sell higher strikes against it as it rallies.
SELL

FMV is $375. The 10-year picture sees it peaking at 2x book, and it now has to break through that ceiling. Market has memory, so it will take a lot of pressure to bust out. Not his favourite. Prefers Canadian to US stocks.

COMMENT
Buy at $100?

First, oil is under a lot of pressure now. Valero at $100 would mean crude at $50. Look at the end of each quarter to buy--buy according to timing, nor price.

DON'T BUY

Trades at a low PE, but is a value trap and is highly cyclical. Their EPS leapt from $9.16 in 20167 to -$3.50 in 2020 to $29.11 last year! Up, down and up big. Has had a a partial share buyback. Today, share are hitting 5-year highs. However, future 2025 EPS estimates are sliding to less than half of 2022's peaks, because of less demand for oil and gas. Also, the existential long-term obstacle are EV's. Consider the massive clean-energy incentives in Biden's 2022 IRA. It's possible earnings have already peaked--big warning.

DON'T BUY

Bearish on refineries at large. More capacity coming on line globally, namely Nigeria and Mexico. Medium-term outlook is not phenomenal. 

PARTIAL SELL

He owned too much energy (12% of his portfolio and now 6%). Energy hasn't performed in the past 12 months.

BUY
Upgraded today

Oil is rangebound at $70-80 and the refiners like this stability especially as we enter spring driving season.

COMMENT

Up 31% YTD. Gasoline is the strongest product within energy. Technically, this is overbought. Price targets are below the current share price, so the street is suspicious of this name.