Stock Opinions by Mike Lyons CA, CFA - Stockchase Experts
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Mike Lyons CA, CFA @

On Stockchase since : Jul 2007

Chief Investment Officer at Lyons Asset Management

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Stock Opinions by Mike Lyons CA, CFA - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

February 24, 2011

Market - Recent mid-east problems might be a decent catalyst for a correction in the market. Market has gone straight up since August and has been looking for a catalyst and this is a pretty big one. Market rally was significant enough and the catalyst is big enough that it could be a fairly good correction. 10% would not surprise him. Could be a few weeks or a couple of months.
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Market - Recent mid-east problems might be a decent catalyst for a correction in the market. Market has gone straight up since August and has been looking for a catalyst and this is a pretty big one. Market rally was significant enough and the catalyst is big enough that it could be a fairly good correction. 10% would not surprise him. Could be a few weeks or a couple of months.
Unknown
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Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Celestica Inc(CLS-T) 

February 24, 2011

Fairly cheap but worries about how much value they can extract, as they don’t sell the end product. Financial multiples are attractive. Not sure this is the best time after their run up. In the wrong place of the value chain as they don’t get to keep any of the economic value themselves. Seem to be doing a better job of late.
electrical/electronic
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Fairly cheap but worries about how much value they can extract, as they don’t sell the end product. Financial multiples are attractive. Not sure this is the best time after their run up. In the wrong place of the value chain as they don’t get to keep any of the economic value themselves. Seem to be doing a better job of late.
electrical/electronic
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Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$11.750
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Manulife Financial(MFC-T) 

February 24, 2011

In the event of a market correction, they might benefit because of all the hedging they have done. To him, a permanent marker against them is their error in writing unhedged insurance premiums.
insurance
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In the event of a market correction, they might benefit because of all the hedging they have done. To him, a permanent marker against them is their error in writing unhedged insurance premiums.
insurance
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Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$18.290
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Altaba Inc(AABA-Q) 

February 24, 2011

Not enthused about this one. Sells for 3 to 4 times revenue, 15 times earnings. If it was a market leader or had some special attributes, he might be willing to pay more for it but it isn’t in this category. Runs a risk of being usurped by other internet vehicles.
computer software/processing
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Not enthused about this one. Sells for 3 to 4 times revenue, 15 times earnings. If it was a market leader or had some special attributes, he might be willing to pay more for it but it isn’t in this category. Runs a risk of being usurped by other internet vehicles.
computer software/processing
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Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$16.370
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Beer is a gradual declining industry. Too expensive given the lackluster industry backdrop. A little over 3X sales.
breweries/beverages
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Beer is a gradual declining industry. Too expensive given the lackluster industry backdrop. A little over 3X sales.
breweries/beverages
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Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$44.660
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Valero Energy Corp(VLO-N) 

February 24, 2011

Refining is an ugly business. Not an industry of secular growth but one of cyclical margin swings. Hard to make money at it and plants are hard to run. Sector has just had a bounce off a significant rally. Has a fair amount of debt. If dynamics for the sector continue positive for a little while, they will be more of a beneficiary than the un-levered players. (He just sold a refiner, Frontier Oil (FTO-N).)
integrated oils
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Refining is an ugly business. Not an industry of secular growth but one of cyclical margin swings. Hard to make money at it and plants are hard to run. Sector has just had a bounce off a significant rally. Has a fair amount of debt. If dynamics for the sector continue positive for a little while, they will be more of a beneficiary than the un-levered players. (He just sold a refiner, Frontier Oil (FTO-N).)
integrated oils
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Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$26.800
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Cisco(CSCO-Q) 

February 24, 2011

Instead of paying dividends they continue to buy back stock, which destroys shareholder value. Not sure management runs the business for the benefit of shareholders.
electrical/electronic
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Instead of paying dividends they continue to buy back stock, which destroys shareholder value. Not sure management runs the business for the benefit of shareholders.
electrical/electronic
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Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$18.360
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
General Electric(GE-N) 

February 24, 2011

If we get an economic rebound it will probably do fairly well. Doesn’t like the black box nature of GE Financials. Will probably do very well if there is an economic rebound.
electrical/electronic
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If we get an economic rebound it will probably do fairly well. Doesn’t like the black box nature of GE Financials. Will probably do very well if there is an economic rebound.
electrical/electronic
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Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$20.580
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Target Corp(TGT-N) 

February 24, 2011

Offers reasonable value. Trades for a reasonable price/sales and earnings. US retail sector is demonstrating they can make money even in this sort of environment. !.93% yield.
clothing
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Offers reasonable value. Trades for a reasonable price/sales and earnings. US retail sector is demonstrating they can make money even in this sort of environment. !.93% yield.
clothing
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Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$52.000
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
Starbucks(SBUX-Q) 

February 24, 2011

This is an example of the kind of stock that he is willing to ride a lot longer and to much higher multiples if he believes management is outstanding. Executing extremely well on many fronts. Fully funding all their expansion and the institution of a dividend. If you feel there will be a market correction, you might want wait.
food services
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This is an example of the kind of stock that he is willing to ride a lot longer and to much higher multiples if he believes management is outstanding. Executing extremely well on many fronts. Fully funding all their expansion and the institution of a dividend. If you feel there will be a market correction, you might want wait.
food services
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Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$31.910
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Caleres Inc(CAL-N) 

February 24, 2011

Likes the footwear industry. Very low multiple at about 25% of revenue and 11X earnings. Targeting to do about $2 a share in the next couple of years. If you put a twelvish multiple on this and get to 50% of revenues, it’s not very hard to get to $25 or $30.
misc consumer products
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Likes the footwear industry. Very low multiple at about 25% of revenue and 11X earnings. Targeting to do about $2 a share in the next couple of years. If you put a twelvish multiple on this and get to 50% of revenues, it’s not very hard to get to $25 or $30.
misc consumer products
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Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$14.770
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
A. Schulman Inc.(SHLM-Q) 

February 24, 2011

A leading performer of high performance plastic resins. Decent dividend of almost 3%. Low price sales and reasonable price/earnings. 2/3 of the business is profitable European operations and 1/3 is unprofitable North American. If the new CEO can get North America up to decent profitability, there is a lot of room for earnings and margin expansion.
chemicals
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A leading performer of high performance plastic resins. Decent dividend of almost 3%. Low price sales and reasonable price/earnings. 2/3 of the business is profitable European operations and 1/3 is unprofitable North American. If the new CEO can get North America up to decent profitability, there is a lot of room for earnings and margin expansion.
chemicals
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Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$21.550
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Bob Evans Farms(BOBE-Q) 

February 24, 2011

(A Top Pick Nov 3/10. Up 5.96%.)
merchandising/lodging
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(A Top Pick Nov 3/10. Up 5.96%.)
merchandising/lodging
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0 comments
Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$30.880
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 3/10. Down 9.85%.) Still Buying
Consumer Products
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(A Top Pick Nov 3/10. Down 9.85%.) Still Buying
Consumer Products
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0 comments
Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$11.760
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Johnson & Johnson(JNJ-N) 

February 24, 2011

(A Top Pick Nov 3/10. Down 5.1%.) Still Buying.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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0 comments
(A Top Pick Nov 3/10. Down 5.1%.) Still Buying.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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0 comments
Mike Lyons CA,

Chief Inve, Lyons Asset Manageme...

Price Price
$60.250
Owned Owned
Yes

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