United Parcel Services (UPS) Buy, Sell or Hold

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United Parcel Services (UPS)

109.42

-1.24 (1.12%)

as of Jul 6, 2026, 4:06:55 pm Market Open.

169 watching

Investor Insights

Jul 6, 2026, 12:00 am

This summary was created by AI, based on 7 opinions in the last 12 months.

United Parcel Service (UPS) is currently undergoing a turnaround, emphasizing automation and maintaining a rich dividend yield of approximately 6-7%. While some experts see it as a contrarian play with a quality franchise and potential for earnings growth, others highlight ongoing struggles, particularly due to high capital intensity, competition from Amazon, and rising costs related to wages and energy. The reviews are mixed; some analysts express concern over the risk of value traps and dividend sustainability, especially given the challenges in the logistics sector. The stock has experienced significant declines this year, leading to thoughts surrounding its attractiveness as a bargain in a competitive landscape.

Consensus

Mixed

Valuation

Fair Value

Similar

FDX

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He would be a buyer here because it is one of the top 100 S&P. His model price is $144.21 or a 24% upside.

DON'T BUY

UPS-N had some interesting news with the FFA approval of their drone delivery business. FDX-N is a few PE multiple points cheaper. UPS has had a positive trend change. FDX has been pulling back again. He prefers UPS if you had to. But neither one is really doing well. Global growth is the most important indicator for both companies and it is not favourable.

DON'T BUY

UPS vs. Fedex Fedex got clobbered based on past earnings, so they've diverged from UPS. Positive seasonality all the way to Thanksgiving. UPS has a trend of higher highs, higher lows, but Fedex is the reverse. He'd stay away from all transportation altogether because shipping metrics on the economy are pathetic. Better places to be.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Down 5%) Has sold some of this. UPS is more resilient than FedEx. Long-term it's a great play on e-commerce--more stuff is getting delivered. It's a short-term trade now--global trade is a little off--but a long-term hold. It's the best company in this industry. Pays over a 3% dividend yield.

COMMENT

Would sell UPS and buy Fedex. Fedex is better managing headwinds from Amazon. They also have more areas that Amazon won' tackle. Wouldn't invest in either due to high cost in order to compete. Their current infrastructure is not ready to compete in the e-commerce world, and will eat up their free cashflow.

DON'T BUY

Longer term, it is a solid company and e-commerce will work well for them. They have to build out their business to allow direct delivery to consumers. This will eliminate their free cash flow for the next several years. Amazon is increasing competition and adding further headwinds.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 03/18, Up 8%) Very up-down chart since 2014. $120 is a good sell target which it has hit four times in that time frame. A good company.

DON'T BUY

UPS or Fedex? Fedex gave an earnings warning late last year and that hurt the value. The two stocks trade similarly. Amazon is an issue for both, who is developing their own delivery service. He wouldn't own either stock.

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 25/18, Down 8%) From October to December this one usually outperforms the S&P. This year the trade war got in the way so he never bought it.

TOP PICK

Looked like an easy trade, and then it broke down. But this is a relatively short occurrence. It will at least bounce up to where he bought it, as it's oversold. If it gets through that level, you have another sideways stock. Have to be prepared to pull triggers to sell if they fail. Yield is 3.9%. (Analysts’ price target is $122.24)

TOP PICK

It is a play on the US economy. The US economy is doing quite well. This is their busy time. You are trying to get in before all the other investors. Get out about December 8^th.

TOP PICK

The world leader in deliveries. they will continue to grow and will transition from brick and mortar to online. Trades at only 15x forward earnings and 4% free cash flow yield. A cheap stock. A strong buy. (2.9% dividend, Analysts' price target: $128.05)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 27/17, up 1%). The largest small parcel company in the world. Amazon will not crush them. They have large economies of scale. Amazon needs UPS and FedEx. Is cheap at 14X next year’s earnings and thinks it is going higher.

PARTIAL BUY

He believes the entry of Amazon into this space is creating concern. He would be a buyer here or on further weakness after the current fears subside.

COMMENT

He has viewed this a good indicator of the economy – especially consumer goods. Amazon has decided UPS could not meet peak delivery demand and has decided to invest in their own distribution network. They will still survive.

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United Parcel Services (UPS)