United Parcel Services (UPS)

(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Down 5%) Has sold some of this. UPS is more resilient than FedEx. Long-term it's a great play on e-commerce--more stuff is getting delivered. It's a short-term trade now--global trade is a little off--but a long-term hold. It's the best company in this industry. Pays over a 3% dividend yield.

Would sell UPS and buy Fedex. Fedex is better managing headwinds from Amazon. They also have more areas that Amazon won' tackle. Wouldn't invest in either due to high cost in order to compete. Their current infrastructure is not ready to compete in the e-commerce world, and will eat up their free cashflow.

Longer term, it is a solid company and e-commerce will work well for them. They have to build out their business to allow direct delivery to consumers. This will eliminate their free cash flow for the next several years. Amazon is increasing competition and adding further headwinds.

It is a play on the US economy. The US economy is doing quite well. This is their busy time. You are trying to get in before all the other investors. Get out about December 8^th.

The world leader in deliveries. they will continue to grow and will transition from brick and mortar to online. Trades at only 15x forward earnings and 4% free cash flow yield. A cheap stock. A strong buy. (2.9% dividend, Analysts' price target: $128.05)

(A Top Pick Sept 27/17, up 1%). The largest small parcel company in the world. Amazon will not crush them. They have large economies of scale. Amazon needs UPS and FedEx. Is cheap at 14X next year’s earnings and thinks it is going higher.

He believes the entry of Amazon into this space is creating concern. He would be a buyer here or on further weakness after the current fears subside.

He has viewed this a good indicator of the economy – especially consumer goods. Amazon has decided UPS could not meet peak delivery demand and has decided to invest in their own distribution network. They will still survive.