United Parcel Services (UPS)

UPS vs. FDX If you believe we're headed into a new economic cycle, transportation is a great place to be. UPS and FDX are the most obvious beneficiaries of the move to online shopping and logistics. Can certainly pull back. Both good, but he prefers UPS, as business model is more unified. Strong operating base. Fedex was cobbled together, operational issues.

Hold? Stick with it. Don't worry about its history. The CEO is smart and solid. Also likes FedEx.

A Covid vaccine distribution play They have a freezer farm in the U.S. and Holland, cold enough to transport the Pfzier vaccine. That's a definite plus. They recently reported a strong quarter, but didn't issue guidance, so the stock got hammered. The stock has since recovered. The coming holiday season is crucial for UPS. He believes in the new CEO to deliver this season and in delivering vaccines.

E-commerce is on fire and the CEO used to run Home Depot. It reports Wednesday. He has faith in the new CEO.

Part of his Fear Factor portfolio of stocks that will thrive with or without government stimulus during Covid This and FedEx were hated recently, but they enable the stay-at-home economy. The new CEO will instill discipline to ensure UPS meets or beats its numbers.

Whole sector has had a resurgence because of e-commerce. His first choice is FedEx because of international priority freight. A timely area.

FDX-N vs. UPS-N. There was a split between FDX-N and AMZN-Q so now investors are favouring UPS-N. Now the US postal service is looking to increase its service to Sunday deliveries. He would still prefer UPS-N over FDX-N.

He likes the UPS name. There are really only two big players in the space, them and FedEx. He prefers FedEx and owns that one. The problem is that there is a growing need for capital to move towards same-day delivery. He thinks FedEx did a smart thing pushing back on Amazon pricing terms and they have reduced their exposure to them to only 1% of revenues.

FedEx has more problems, namely absorbing a big European acquisition of TNT Express, but both are impacted by Amazon's move into overnight delivery and the trade war. He won't buy them, but prices are starting to look attractive. Wants to see a turnaround before buying either.