Opinions
Teal Linde
Uber
UBER-N
WEAK BUY
May 19, 2020
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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We continue to like UBER. It's a large name, with a decent valuation of 22.6X forward earnings, forward growth epectations are decent, and analyst estimates continue to climb higher. We like its operating leverage, and it's now profitable with good free cash flow.
In a hypothetical scenario, where we had a US model portfolio, we could see it being in either the Balanced or Growth model portfolio, with a slight tilt towards the Balanced model portfolio.
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Let it go after Q4 results. Concerned that it was reaching saturation in major urban markets. Talked about aggressively pursuing suburban market share, which is harder to serve and likely not as profitable. Slowing growth YOY. Major question marks about fledgling freight business.
New CEO in 2017 vowed to increase profitability, and it's materialized in operating margins, earnings, and cashflow. Thinks that will continue. Rapidly getting into self-driving, which apparently will dominate the space over the next number of years. Stock has a long way to go over next 5 years.
For the long term The big money has already been made here by private equity investors. But Uber is still growing as a duopoly (with Lyft). It's breaking even on an EBITDA basis and not losing money as some think, but Uber Eats is losing money. Uber enjoyed double-digit growth before the virus, and will likely return to that, but earnings may be weak short term. That said, you will come out ahead for the long term. Uber doesn't spend money on cars, but rather marketing. The scalability also makes this attractive. This will grow, but not as much as in the past.