TSE:TV

Trevali Mining Corp (TV.TO)

COMMENT

Has fallen this year, typical of this sector. A small name like this can move around a lot with a single announcement. He doesn't know this name that well.

COMMENT

Zinc. He does not own a lot of commodities. There is not a lot of zinc production coming on stream so this looks good. However this is a smaller cap Canadian company and has suffered like a lot of other mining companies on the TSX. It is a reasonably well operated company with decent assets.

RISKY

A cheap stock. This is a great leveraged play on the price of zinc. Buying this depends on where you think the price of zinc will go.

WAIT

Materials do well from November to March. Look to buy into the fall. Technicals show a rollover, constantly pushing lower. Significant resistance. Stay away.

BUY

This one's come off a long way. You can buy it here after a huge drop. Past history has shown where the bottom is.

DON'T BUY

This is a classic potential value trap. It looks very cheap on a short-term basis but the assets that it has are not low-cost assets. However, of the base metals, he is most bullish on zinc. This is a good way for someone to take a levered position on zinc, but he thinks base metal fundamentals are challenged now. The trend for base metals seems to be downward, and there was a huge stocking up of inventories of base metals back in the spring, especially on the Shanghai exchange, and that still has to be unwound. He was generally short base materials in the Spring but is neutral now. He is still short the renewable energy materials, lithium and graphite, because he thinks the market is expecting the infrastructure that will use these to be built out faster than it will actually be built.

TOP PICK

Cheap. A pure zinc play. Zinc is acting better for the first time in 10 years. This stock is acting like it's going to zero. Strong cash generation over the next few years to pay off all debt. (Analysts' price target: $1.70)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick August 22/17 Down 45%) Falling zinc prices really hurt this investment. Now the balance sheet is still okay and the stock only trades at 3 times earnings. You just have to wait for zinc prices to rise.

BUY

They executed their base plan well. The drop in the stock price is probably unrelated to what they are doing. It is more the macro situation pushing the stock down including trade wars. Zinc is one of the earlier metals to move. Now perhaps people moved to other metals. If you have a favorable view of zinc you should buy the stock. (Analysts’ price target is $1.90)

HOLD

It looks like it is breaking down. There was a former uptrend from 2016 to 2018 and then it broke down. It is now in a downtrend. The next support area is just below where it is now. If it bounces it might come back to the higher trading range.

COMMENT

It's a New Brunswick zinc play. He sold it too early. It's low-cost zinc. It had a nice run and has petered out. THere's nothing wrong with this, but it is little known, covered by only a few analysts.

BUY

It has history of holding at its current $1 range. You can buy it, but don't rush into it.

BUY

This is a zinc miner. His forecasts for zinc are quite bullish. It is small, with only two operating assets, one high quality and the other less. It trades at 0.7 or 0.8 times NAV and on that basis it is getting to look quite cheap. He is looking to buy more to add to his small current position.

DON'T BUY

When dealing with dollar stocks you really need to like the name or something about the company to get in. The chart doesn’t tell him anything. (Analysts’ price target is $2)

WEAK BUY

They bought two mines from Glencore last year making them the largest small-cap producer of zinc in the country. It is cheap and he does not understand why there is not more interest. The mines are producing as expected and the balance sheet is good. Since Glencore still owns 20% of the company, it may be potentially block an acquisition. (Analysts’ price target is $2.00 )

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