Tesla Inc (TSLA)

It reports this week. The EV business is in bad shape. But the stock moves on Musk's storytelling in self-driving taxis and robots. Though brilliant, Musk tends to be over-optimistic about his delivery timelines.

It reports Wednesday. This may be the quarter which defines a new narrative: Tesla is a self-driving and robotic company. If so, shares will go sky-high, if they define themselves as a none-car company. 

It's been in a basing pattern for 5 years and now we're near the top of the range. Robo-taxis will break it out and bring recurring revenues to raise margins to 85%.

Volatility really comes down to the valuation -- current PE of 310x, forward PE of 215x. Even with a 30-50% growth rate on that, it's still well over 4x PEG ratio. High valuation brings with it high execution risk, so investors are very sensitive to production numbers, forward guidance, and the economy. Margin pressure from competitors.

Does have robotics in front of it, but that's only ~10% of current revenues. It'll grow over time, but that's in the future. Heavily weighted to future expectations of growth.

Tesla does not own any SpaceX shares, so cannot do a spin out or dividend of shares. There has been a proposal to allow Tesla shareholders first access to buying SpaceX shares, however.  We think the two companies will be treated separately. Tesla may get a better valuation as Musk will have another asset to sell easily if he needs money (for another takeover or something) So there may be less of an 'overhang' of stock of TSLA. We do not think the success or lack thereof of SpaceX will have that much of an impact on TSLA shares.
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Robotaxi business is a big thing they've emphasized, and will make a big difference over the next year but not as much as people think. By far, the best EV in North America and the most beautiful compared to Ford and GM ugly versions ;) Bigger issue is that it didn't come out with a cheaper car. China's BYD offering is better than TSLA's and cheaper (except with the tariffs, it's not) -- see them in Europe everywhere. 

Stock's been doing better because Elon is spending more time at the company now. Way behind the robotaxi curve compared to Waymo, which is already in so many different cities in the US.

Robots themselves are still a ways down the road. Vehicle margins are going to come down. Expensive stock. Better off buying other things.

Four years trading sideways in a technical base. Bunch of catalysts ahead. Past 3 months has seen clear shift from hyperscalers to the AI adopters, and TSLA is clearly an AI adopter. What's needed to run autonomous cars is not too different from what robots will need. Just broke out to new highs, excellent time to get in. No dividend.

It won't get much higher unless there is a breakthrough. She is selling calls.

Both a tech company and a car company and he values it accordingly. Premium car company, valued like a BMW. Problem is that the other bit, including the dream of robotics, is really hard to value. One of the most overvalued stocks in the market.

Lots of hype and speculation. You're playing the greater fool theory. He prefers not to play that type of game. Risk/reward not attractive.

Was up 6.8% today. There have been reports that it's being priced out of China, but Tesla is not about Elon Musk's vision of self-driving cars and robots.

Has been on an upswing, though pulled back a little lately. Does it trade like a tech stock (down) or a car one (up). Could be a tug of war. Very volatile. The jury is still out. Next support level is $400, then $360-375.

A name that people love to hate. Next year will be important, as will tomorrow with the vote on the $1T package for Musk. 

Next year will still be about autonomous vehicles, but that's when it'll start to mass-produce Optimus robots and humanoids. Production estimates keep being raised. His 12-month price target is $550. Once the autonomous robotics start coming out, expects price target to increase. No dividend.

If he were trading this one he'd look for momentum indicators, overbought/oversold metrics, and points of resistance. Recently broke out; maybe that's good, maybe it's not. Not an easy chart to read, he'd find it hard to trade.