Tesla Inc (TSLA)

It reported last week. Musk says its future is cyber cabs and robots. Shares fell that next day. Their capex was higher than expected. Bulls may be more excited about SpaceX becoming public later this year

Hard to know what the future holds for this company. Taking gigantic bets on robotics and power generation, and spending a lot of $$. Valuation is ~200x PE!! A lot of this fantastic news that may or may not happen in the future seems to be already priced into the stock. Elon Musk is an amazing storyteller. 

He won't buy for clients right now. He doesn't like to buy on unknown what-ifs 20 years in the future. We'll have to see how the Chinese EVs work out. But if it came down to a reasonable valuation, he'd be interested.

Used to be invested, but not now. Sees a lot of potential for upside, but also for downside. Robotics (very early stages) and autonomous vehicles (will take longer to gain adoption). She wants companies with good risk/reward plus some kind of valuation support to get them through a downturn. TSLA doesn't have that.

Long term, over 10 years, likely to do well.

Today they reported surprising top and bottom line beats and strong free cash flow. (We already knew that Tesla production delivery results fell short of expectations.)

It reports this week. The EV business is in bad shape. But the stock moves on Musk's storytelling in self-driving taxis and robots. Though brilliant, Musk tends to be over-optimistic about his delivery timelines.

It reports Wednesday. This may be the quarter which defines a new narrative: Tesla is a self-driving and robotic company. If so, shares will go sky-high, if they define themselves as a none-car company. 

It's been in a basing pattern for 5 years and now we're near the top of the range. Robo-taxis will break it out and bring recurring revenues to raise margins to 85%.

Volatility really comes down to the valuation -- current PE of 310x, forward PE of 215x. Even with a 30-50% growth rate on that, it's still well over 4x PEG ratio. High valuation brings with it high execution risk, so investors are very sensitive to production numbers, forward guidance, and the economy. Margin pressure from competitors.

Does have robotics in front of it, but that's only ~10% of current revenues. It'll grow over time, but that's in the future. Heavily weighted to future expectations of growth.

Tesla does not own any SpaceX shares, so cannot do a spin out or dividend of shares. There has been a proposal to allow Tesla shareholders first access to buying SpaceX shares, however.  We think the two companies will be treated separately. Tesla may get a better valuation as Musk will have another asset to sell easily if he needs money (for another takeover or something) So there may be less of an 'overhang' of stock of TSLA. We do not think the success or lack thereof of SpaceX will have that much of an impact on TSLA shares.
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Robotaxi business is a big thing they've emphasized, and will make a big difference over the next year but not as much as people think. By far, the best EV in North America and the most beautiful compared to Ford and GM ugly versions ;) Bigger issue is that it didn't come out with a cheaper car. China's BYD offering is better than TSLA's and cheaper (except with the tariffs, it's not) -- see them in Europe everywhere. 

Stock's been doing better because Elon is spending more time at the company now. Way behind the robotaxi curve compared to Waymo, which is already in so many different cities in the US.

Robots themselves are still a ways down the road. Vehicle margins are going to come down. Expensive stock. Better off buying other things.

Four years trading sideways in a technical base. Bunch of catalysts ahead. Past 3 months has seen clear shift from hyperscalers to the AI adopters, and TSLA is clearly an AI adopter. What's needed to run autonomous cars is not too different from what robots will need. Just broke out to new highs, excellent time to get in. No dividend.

It won't get much higher unless there is a breakthrough. She is selling calls.

Both a tech company and a car company and he values it accordingly. Premium car company, valued like a BMW. Problem is that the other bit, including the dream of robotics, is really hard to value. One of the most overvalued stocks in the market.

Lots of hype and speculation. You're playing the greater fool theory. He prefers not to play that type of game. Risk/reward not attractive.