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Sino-Forest Corp (TRE.TO)

DON'T BUY
Straddle? Oct 3 Calls last traded at $1.20 and the Puts traded at $1.35. The options on the stock tend to have very wide Bid/Ask spreads. Doesn't know if you would be able to get it on at a reasonable price. He would have reservations about doing this.
DON'T BUY
Allegations by Muddy Waters have devastated the stock. Company has not been vigorous in its defense. Wouldn’t touch this stock.
HOLD
A tough call for anybody at this point as nothing has been cleared. Doesn’t expect it’s complete fraud. Doesn’t think it is like a Ponzi scheme. Would continue to hold and wait for more data to come out.
DON'T BUY
Could not get comfortable with this one because of the uncertainty of contract rights.
DON'T BUY
Would not touch it with a 10-foot pole. Who knows where it is going. If you have it and got it at $20 and now it is at $4 perhaps you wait it out and/or sell out on a strong day.
COMMENT
Forestry just ended its period of seasonal strength. Chart shows that it held at about the $15.50 level but broke down through minorly. A light penetration is OK. If we don’t get a bounce off the $15-$15.25 level quickly, we’ll probably see it at the $10 level.
SELL
Fraud charges laid and trading has been suspended. 3rd unbiased parties are going to have to go over to China to make sure the company is for real. Until that happens, you are probably better off out of it.
COMMENT
Peers in this sector got hit hard. Ran up to the 50 day, down to the 200 and crashed through the 200, almost equal distance from the peak of the 200 to the low of the 200. This was a sector correction, not a specific stock correction. Long term trend is still intact. Thinks you should be OK with this.
TOP PICK
Forestry plantations in China. There is a secular shift taking place in China from concrete structures to timber structures, partly because of costs. Chinese government is trying to reduce housing costs for low-income folks. Tremendous amount of damage to concrete structures after the last earthquake.
BUY
Big supplier of wood. Tremendous plantations of eucalyptus in China. Standing timber is one of the great inflation hedges.
COMMENT
Chart shows upward channel with upper resistance-lower support. If it stays within those lines you will do well. However steepness of the rally is starting to decline and expects it will consolidate around $20, which suggests some trading activity between $18.50 and $21.50 and could go on for maybe 3 or 4 months before a breakout.
DON'T BUY
Produces lumber for the Chinese market, which makes the stock's valuation dependent on what the world believes about China's growth. Valuation is reasonable if China continues to grow. He would prefer a more diversified way by looking at a materials-sector investment.
DON'T BUY
It’s a long story. Enormous plantations of eucalyptus in China. You are buying cash flow and the growing wood. Better managed than people feared a few years ago.
TRADE
Brilliantly run company. Intelligent in this business. Feeding its product into a Chinese environment.
COMMENT
Great looking chart and reaching new highs. Use a finance site (Stockchart.com or Globeinvestor) and draw a 100 and 200 day moving average, which gives you a trailing stop loss. Get out a half position if it drops below the 100-day and out of the full position if it drops below the 200-day. Could see this going to $25.
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