Timminco Ltd. (TIM.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Timminco Ltd. (TIM.TO)

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BUY

Q; What is your exit strategy considering you own such a large percentage of this stock? A: Volumes are large enough that they could sell, but their strategy is via a takeover or transition into a multi-market cap. At some point this company will need to be bought by a solar company.

COMMENT

For all practical purposes, he feels their process is real and their earnings are accelerating. He just sold his stock because it has reached its old high. When it goes down again, it can be repurchased.

DON'T BUY

Their technology is being challenged. Stock made a huge gain, but ever since then it has become very choppy and the way it trades. The big run-up was on expectation meaning there is no profit yet from that side of the business. Something does not seem right there. There are other sources for solar such as First Solar (FSLR-Q), a rise technology (APV-T) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ-Q).

COMMENT

Upgrades metallurgical grade silicon. The key advantage they have is cost. The supply/demand for solar is way out of whack. This will be corrected in a couple of years. The question is, can they go from 400 metric tons this year to 14,000 metric tons by 2010. If they can do that and keep costs under control, this would be a Buy.

COMMENT

Looks like a good Buy right now but there is huge volatility. Very good trading stock. They are reporting earnings on May 8 and this will help propel the stock, either up or down depending on results. Very difficult to predict.

DON'T BUY

Short sellers have been saying they don't have a product but, on the other side, they have some pretty serious backers who understand that there is a product. European firms have been spending a lot more in Cap-x and have not had a technology that has really done what they say can be done. Still have to prove it self.

COMMENT

Feels his company knows the solar space very well and is confident with this one. There is some risk. There is no question about the quality of their production. The only question is can they produce in large quantities with high quality and low cost.

DON'T BUY

A controversial stock. Have yet to deliver a full quarter of production with their new high-grade silicon process. Analysts haven't had a lot of access to see if their process is real. Fully priced.

DON'T BUY

One of the most interesting and controversial stories on the TSX right now. One side says they have found a way to make solar panel grade silicon cheaper than anyone else in the world and will soon go into large-scale production. Others say it is a scam and haven't invented any new process. Wouldn't speculate on this one.

TOP PICK

Top Short Has not seen anything to prove to him that they have any sort of proprietary technology and yet there is so much built into the stock. Had declining revenues and operating losses for several years. No clear technology advantage over anyone. Doesn't think they can deliver on any of their contracts.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Recent deal with the German solar manufacturer is quite significant. A problem with metallurgical silicon is that no one knows what the problems will be in 10 or 20 years. Will cells degrade quicker than conventional cells? Stock has reached a point where it is not going to definitely be a home run. Still looks attractive based on earnings potential, but shorts are starting to come into the market now. Long term he is positive on it.

COMMENT

Solar power play. Doesn't know what the upside is. A choppy trader. Very speculative right here. May represent too much risk.

WATCH

Manufactures silicon for solar panels. Has gone up a lot but not necessarily expensive. Chart shows a saw tooth pattern so, if you can, buy on the dips. Higher highs and higher lows. 71X PE is pretty high even with strong earnings growth.

STRONG BUY

Timminco (TIM-T) and Arise Technologies (APV-T) are 2 radically different companies. This one produces silicon, which is the cornerstone for making solar cells and computer chips. Silicon is in extremely short supply. The real trick in silicon is its purity. Introducing a new process for higher purity. Huge increase in production should come on mid-2009.

COMMENT

Have appeared to secure a wonderful new contract, which appears to absorb all their production including their expansion. The new contract means they will have to expand more. If you bought it very low, take some profits.

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Timminco Ltd. (TIM.TO)