Timminco Ltd. (TIM.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Timminco Ltd. (TIM.TO)

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13 watching

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 20/07. Up 40%.) Still thinks it has great earnings power. Last quarter was very disappointing in terms of production but still a Hold.

DON'T BUY

Started at a very low price and went up to almost $40. It has no earnings and has no dividends. A pure speculation, not an investment. Technology has a whole lot of people that say they know something and are shorting it and they have been right. Wait until it makes money.

DON'T BUY

Recent results were very disappointing and stock got brutally punished. A real “show me” stock. They say they can make silica cheaper with higher volumes than anyone else and yet they recently announced contamination in the process and costs were out of line. If it works, you'll make a lot of money but if it doesn't it won't be worth much.

SELL

(Market Call Minute.) Likes the whole sector but until he sees economics changing he wouldn't hold.

DON'T BUY

(In-the-money-straddle options.) On straddles you are basically betting on volatility. You are effectively Buying a Call option and Buying a Put option. Academically it’s an interesting trade that makes a lot of sense but practically it’s very difficult to make money on a straddle in Canada. Most options expire worthless, so he prefers Selling them, not Buying. Avoid straddles at all costs.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 7/07. Up 238%.) Think they can have 30,000 more tons of production. Still has confidence in this one.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 4/07. Up 317%.) Last year they didn't have brand name contracts, purity, quality or the expansion. Now everything is in place. They can now get premium pricing for their silicon.

COMMENT

If the technology works as it is stated to, then this is a very valuable property. They don't as yet have a demonstrated record of production and the material being put in place.

WEAK BUY

A very slippery high-risk name. It is back down to the lower end of the trading channel so if you were going to enter the stock, this would be the place to do it. Bear in mind that every trend line is ultimately broken. Make sure you have a stop.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

(Market Call Minute.) A little ahead of itself. Wait for a lower price.

COMMENT

This stock has as many opinions as there are analysts and range from outstandingly glowing to unbelievably dismal. Has no idea who is right. Doesn’t understand their technology so he doesn’t own.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 15/07. Up 843%.) Massive earnings profile @ $.40 in 08, probably $2 in 09, $3-$3.50 in 2010 and possibly $7 in 2011. Expecting multiple contract announcements this summer. Could be a capacity announcement going from 14,500 metric tons to 20 or 25 thousand metric tons.

DON'T BUY

Has concerns on the price of the stock. Looking at the earnings potential and the current price he can't see making any money.

DON'T BUY

He is not a player at this price. Mid 20’s would be a good entry point.

HOLD

(Market Call Minute.) Potential is still to come.

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Timminco Ltd. (TIM.TO)