Timminco Ltd. (TIM.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Timminco Ltd. (TIM.TO)

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SELL

Silicon production that goes into solar panels. Basically a rare space, concept stock. When you have a bull market, everybody gets excited and there is a lot of money to be made, but bear markets have no patience for them.. Thinks it had a spike top in late December. If you own, consider reducing.

DON'T BUY

Manufactures silicon for solar panels. They are developing a process to purify it to 99.59%. Market is very bullish on the name. Have gotten some contracts but haven’t given a lot of details on them. Still not producing earnings. He would like to see some earnings out of them.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Sees a lot of good things happening with this company. A number of the solar plays are pricey and he would marginally favour Arise Technologies (APV-T). If you can get it in the mid-teens you would be better off.

DON'T BUY

Up 7000% over the last year, so would not buy it at this time. Has a new method of making solar panels and appears to be in commercial production. Have some long-term contracts. Underlying story looks great and it might be a good company but not necessarily a great investment.

COMMENT

Solar panel manufacturer. Multiple is around 25X. A fast growing sector. Prefers 5N Plus (VNP-T).

COMMENT

Manufactures solar grade silicon. Thinks of it as more for trading.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 11/07. Up 505.5%.) Metallurgical silicon for solar cells. World’s 2nd largest solar manufacturer just signed a long-term agreement. Expect to be fully running with 3 lines by the end of the 1st quarter giving $.40/45 earnings, $1.50 in 09 and $2.50 in 2010.

STRONG BUY

Had almost used this as a Top Pick. They benefit from a worldwide shortage of solar grade silicon. Their plant is working, quality looks good and they are probably going to announce a customer. May end up in the TSX Index tonight. It will be a huge 6 next weeks for them.

TOP PICK

Solar silicon manufacturer. Will go into production in the next 2 weeks. When they announce production, a lot of uncertainty will come off. Have sold more than their 2008 capacity so they will have to expand. Did a financing so balance sheet risk is completely out of the way. Big enough to go into the TSX index. Expect they can make $2.50 a share.

COMMENT

Solar play. The warning right now is that in 2 or 3 weeks it is either going to be a $15 to $20 stock or a $5 to $10 stock. Traditionally have been producing chemical grade silicon at 3.9 purity and are trying to produce solar grade silicon at 6.9. If they run into hiccups, the stock could go down.

BUY

They are still on track to get their production going in December for the manufacturing of polysilicon. That will get them 1200 metric tons and their next 2 lines should get them to 4000 in the 1st quarter. The shortage is supposed to be eased in 2009 so the high prices they get may ease off. Buy it in the $10’s.

WEAK BUY

Raised in the past solely because of silicon. They will go to full capacity in early December. In early 08 they should be at full capacity, making a lot of money. The risk is they don’t produce the capacity or grade they intend to. Own almost 20% of company.

DON'T BUY

Attractive solar play. Very high risk. Solar valuations globally are ridiculous right now. This is being dragged up by that. If the market continues to correct, this will be one of the companies hurt the most.

SELL

(Market Call Minute) Would be a seller. Overpriced.

COMMENT

Manufacturers pure silicon, which is needed for solar panels. Not sure he has a good fix on the earnings. Sold his holdings too early. Need to be patient for 2 or 3 quarters.

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Timminco Ltd. (TIM.TO)