Telus CorpT.TOHOLDDec 29, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 04, 2026. Market Open.
In the midst of Canada's technical recession, you have to think about what kind of investor you are. A basket of telcos can be used as a bond proxy, as it'll provide income in your portfolio. Income can then be used to protect you defensively on the downside, or to redeploy into growthier names. It gives your portfolio some ballast.
It's an income story, not a growth story. Doesn't see much problem if you hold them longer term. If Telus cut its dividend, he'd probably buy.
Heavy debt from network buildout, and concerns about dividend. Last quarter was steady, revenue roughly flat. FCF jumped 19%. Fibre and 5G build is winding down, so capex is being cut. May monetize Telus Health to pay down debt.
Analysts are consistently too optimistic. Likes the company, but stay away for now. Prefers QBR.B.
Lots more capital at risk, but implies a lot more upside potential. Likes this name, though it's in the "have-not" area right now. Anemic wireless, yet still 13% EPS growth at 14x PE for 2028. Math still works. Beautiful dividend (but he expects a cut with the new CEO) -- stock should react positively.
Dividend will probably be cut, but it'll still be a nice dividend. Liked it at the start of the year, but some assumptions don't come to fruition. Uptick in wireless and less competitive landscape haven't happened.
You have to ask yourself if you still like the stock? And he does. Look at the journey of INTC as an example. If your conviction goes from a high of 90% to, say, 80%, you can trim.
It's OK if things don't always go your way on a position. Sometimes you have to take action, and other times you don't.
His firm has a small position. They're holding on and doing more homework. Bought lots of things that seemed to make sense, but weren't integrated properly. Asset base is great, just not performing well financially.
New CEO on July 1 -- very astute, high calibre, ran CIBC. Expect lots of changes, and those should be positive. Dividend may be cut, investors who own just for the dividend may sell, others will applaud the move, and stock may actually rally.
Long term, its assets have value. Stock's been cut in half from highs of 2022. Government has really hamstrung companies on network sharing. There's been competition. New CEO could be transformational.
Stock's really washed out. Even if dividend is cut, still has a solid yield. Yield is 9.87%.
He owns no communications stocks based on the macro view. Slow-growth sector, at best. Good dividends, but they are at risk.
If he were the new CEO coming in, the dividend would be high in the pecking order of ways to restructure the company. If you need a tax-loss, a perfect candidate. If it then pops up, so be it. Much better fish to fry.
He owns Rogers, instead. Telus is a good operator, but have stumbled along the way. Problem is, the dividend takes up all their free cash flow. So, can they grow into that huge 8.5% dividend distribution and pay down some debt and leave net cash on the balance sheet? Not sure if there will be a dividend cut, like BCE did.
Has a great yield of 4.3% and trades at about 17X earnings. With Alberta having such difficulty with oil, the stock kind of collapsed. Prior to that it was doing incredibly well. They also had very good growth on their mobile side. They are doing a massive CapX expenditure like BCE in order to do fibre to the home. BCE was doing it in massively dense populations so it wasn't as costly. Telus is working in Alberta, and the costs are for more expensive. Looking at their balance sheet, their CapX is going up substantially, but the free cash flow has fallen a lot. They have to get through this, where the CapX starts to go down again and free cash flow grows. He would stay with this.