Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF.TO)

Unsure why it's dropped a lot lately, but he likes the fundamentals of the insurers. Interest rates are rising and people are living longer, so the lifecos can collect premiums for longer. There is rotation between lifecos and banks, and that
could be happening now. Thinks SLF is the best Canadian insurance stock and believes in the insurance industry long-term.

He recently evaluated this space. As interest rates increase their long term liabilities should become more profitable. They are cleaning up their operational issues. He hopes there will be a market pullback, so they might be able to step back in. He actually prefers Manulife (MFC-T), but is watching both. He would love to buy both of these if the stock prices drop by $5.

He considers this a healthy yield that is likely to grown. It trades at only 11x earnings. It will be a beneficiary of rising interest rates, which he expects to continue. He expects 10% earnings growth for the next 3 years. This is the largest foreign insurer in Asia (India), which offers huge growth possibilities. Its MFS American operations have turned around. Yield 3.8%. (Analysts’ price target $58.54)

The expectation is that the rate is going to invert next year. That is not good for banks and particularly bad for insurance companies. If you believe that next year is the great inversion, you don’t want to own any financials. Avoid.

He likes the life insurance industry and owns three companies in that space. Sun Life is the Canadian company that he likes. He prefers it to Manulife. He thinks it is better managed, with better exposure to interest rates. He likes the amount and quality of international diversification of Sun Life.

Today, everything in financials rallied, including the lifecos. Rising rates benefit them. But the US banks look better. Instead, look at the ETF, KIE-N, to give you a basket of insurance companies. Today it broke new highs. SLF isn't the best house in a very good neighbourhood.

Cash flow from US and Canadian life insurance businesses they use to reinvest in growing markets in Asia. They have excess capital at the holdco level that can be used for acquisitions, pay dividend or buyback shares. (3.7% dividend, Analysts' price target: $58.57)

He likes the insurance group as a whole, as it trades at 1.4 times book and and 10-11 times earnings. He feels this is the most expensive of the Big 3 in the group and so would favour others.

Life Insurance companies do better when interest rates rise because they reinvest their premiums, mainly in the bond market. Interest rates have not increased as much as he hoped; instead, the yield curve is flattening. He expects interest rates to rise in the future, though, and he owns Sun Life in that expectation. He thinks that over the near term, Sun Life will perform better than the Canadian banks as interest rates move up. Interest rates will rise because the economy is doing better and inflation is coming back, caused by labour shortages and tariffs.

Numbers aren’t that bad, however has always traded at a premium compared to peers. Mutual fund side has had significant withdrawals, and so the stock sold off. Well managed, but technically it has broken down. If goes down to $48, a definite buy. But not right now.

He likes it. It is a good insurance name, trading to a premium to other insurance names out there. They are looking for acquisitions where they can add to their portfolios. Nice dividend. Rising interest rates should benefit it. They have growth in Asian.

(A Top Pick September 7/17 Up 18%) This will be a big beneficiary if the yield curve steepens. They have grown their business in Asia, the US and India. He looks for 10% earnings growth annually and further expansion of the dividend.

Buy or sell? Caught in a trading range on the chart. If it gets up to $54-55 range, sell, and then buy it back closer to $50. Not a bad yield, relatively safe. But until it shows signs of breaking out, better yields elsewhere.

It is the safe, steady lifeco. They are in a dividend growing mode. It is a great company to own. A company they own in the US has had redemption issues, but it is a great company to retire on.

Manulife (MFC-T) versus Sunlife (SLF-T). He owned Manulife going into the financial crisis, but became concerned about management and sold out of their holdings. When Sunlife began to fall in sympathy they bought them – focusing on the preferred shares in particular. Manulife still has some questionable assets in the US and may not know how to offload them.