Jesse Gamble Shopify Inc. SHOP-T DON'T BUY Jan 27, 2025

Down ~30% from recent highs, but still above 200-day MA, which is also moving higher. Technically, shares still look sound. Pricey at 61x forward PE for 20-25% earnings growth, a PEG ratio of 2.5x. He prefers US names for tech.

The stock has been volatile, as all growth stocks have been recently. We think merchant customers and the company can adapt well enough. However, the consumer spending impact of tariffs remains a variable. Consumer confidence has dropped, and if tariffs induce inflation then business may certainly be negatively impacted overall. Silver linings might be valuation (better of course with the decline) and sentiment (market sentiment is so bad currently any good news could amplify moves). It remains a high Beta stock. Down 11% YTD, it has actually held up better than many others.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Pullbacks are great opportunities to add. Continues to invest in R&D. Payments is a big growth vector, still available in only a handful of countries. Secular rise in e-commerce still has room to run.

Growth company that hasn't been smashed, despite coming down from highs. Flirting with getting into the NASDAQ 100; if it goes down there, will be a lot more buying. Last quarter earnings were good, subscription revenue up, and executing well. But it's pricey.

Must-own name, but you have to buy it at the right level. Very whippy, use the technicals to buy.

Not ready to buy. Stock's suffered, but still not cheap. Lots of growth is built into the share price. If recession, consumers will stop buying or buy less. He'd prefer AMZN, quite frankly.

Valuation is 61x forward PE with 25% growth, giving a PEG ratio of well over 2x. 200-week MA is trending lower, which is not a fantastic technical sign. Have to watch out for rivals such as AMZN and ETSY. Depends more on small-and mid-sized businesses, which can be affected more by any economic downturn.

A Canadian stock that will be a major beneficiary of AI. 

Look at the 5-year chart. The peak in 2021 concerns him on valuation. Not surprising that it came into resistance when it entered a similar window earlier this year. Likes buying dips, don't chase here.

Fine job in utilizing AI, becoming more efficient. Cosmetics and clothing are two of its bigger channels, and these are among the easiest to switch supply chains. This makes those segments relatively less impacted by trade and tariff volatility. No dividend.

No idea if there's more upside. Very expensive. Doesn't have the consistency he looks for. Better opportunities at better prices elsewhere.